From an economic point of view, the eurozone could hardly be in better shape than it is today. The upswing seems likely to continue, the peak has just begun. This development is reflected in the results of this latest Euro Monitor, with which we measure the state of the euro economies on the basis of 20 indicators every year. The average rating for the euro area now stands at 6.8 points in the good midfield of the scale of one to ten. Furthermore, no EMU country is located in the critically defined depreciation area (1-4 points).
The strong improvement in the overall indicator since 2012 is not only due to the recent economic upswing, but also in particular to the crisis-related structural reforms of the labor and product markets in the former programme countries.
Macroeconomic imbalances have been reduced and, above all, the internal adjustment mechanisms of the monetary union have been strengthened in the long term by higher wage and price flexibility. This should also increase the convergence of key macroeconomic variables, which is the most important prerequisite for a stable currency area. The Euro Monitor data supports this thesis.After the harsh setbacks in the crisis years, the economic rapprochement of the EMU members has intensified again. Although the development of the individual indicators was not uniform, according to our calculations the economic divergence between the national economies is even lower today than it was before the crisis.
“The thesis of many critics that the necessary adjustment processes in the euro area cannot take place due to political or social constraints can be refuted. The crisis of the years around 2012 was not caused by the monetary union itself, but triggered by the misguided policy mix in some countries, which in turn resulted in excessive debt, foreign trade deficits and a loss of competitiveness. The problem was not the currency, but economic and fiscal policy,” said Michael Heise, chief economist at Allianz.
However, in view of the remaining imbalances, such as the high public debt burden and high unemployment rates in many EMU member states, the clean-up process has not yet been completed. In the subdivision of indicators into longer-term levels and progress parameters, measuring progress in reducing weaknesses, it is clear that the level indicator 2017 alone contributed to the improvement of the overall indicator, while the progress indicator stagnated. The reasons for this are not only the economic upswing, but also the declining crisis mood and the ECB's expansionary monetary policy.
Heise: “There is some evidence that the eurozone is now more crisis-resistant and more stable than in 2007. Reform progress however has stalled since 2015. It is definitely too early for that. The economic tailwind should be used for reforms to arm the monetary union for worse times. The next downturn is bound to come.” For the former crisis countries, this means further reducing the legacy burden of the crisis. The core EMU countries, on the other hand, should make up for the lack of reforms in recent years. This concerns mainly France, Italy and Belgium, which are at the rear end in our ranking, but also Germany and Luxembourg, which recently showed very little ambition for reform.
The Allianz Group is one of the world's leading insurers and asset managers with more than 86 million retail and corporate customers. Allianz customers benefit from a broad range of personal and corporate insurance services, ranging from property, life and health insurance to assistance services to credit insurance and global business insurance. Allianz is one of the world’s largest investors, managing over 650 billion euros on behalf of its insurance customers while our asset managers Allianz Global Investors and PIMCO manage an additional 1.4 trillion euros of third-party assets. Thanks to our systematic integration of ecological and social criteria in our business processes and investment decisions, we hold the leading position for insurers in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. In 2017, over 140,000 employees in more than 70 countries achieved total revenue of 126 billion euros and an operating profit of 11 billion euros for the group.
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