This is a stark turnaround to the previous two years when the value of global trade in goods and services contracted. The value of global trade lost close to $3 trillion between 2014 and 2016 after a collapse in commodity price and a series of shocks, including a stock market rout in China and political surprises such as Brexit.
In the latest annual report, Euler Hermes projects that global trade value will recover the lost $3 trillion by 2018 with strong demand growth coming from emerging Asia, the euro zone and the U.S in particular. They also believe 2017 marks a turning point that will see demand growth pick up speed and commodity prices recover.
“We expect global output to accelerate slightly above 3 percent,” says Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Euler Hermes. “This will be the first time since 2011 this has occurred, and should see the investment cycle in advanced economies move onto a stronger footing. China’s economy will remain firm and the pressure on commodity exporters will be relieved by rising prices.”