5 years after Lehman

A chronology of the crisis. What were the causes and what is today’s situation like? Part I: The beginnings
 

2001 - 2002: Non-performing loans
 

The subprime mortgage market begins to grow rapidly. Access to credit is easier. Many Americans seize the opportunity offered by low interest rates, and realize their dream of owning their own home. The real estate boom begins. The US banks grant almost everyone a loan - even those who are in no way able to afford a house. The number of house sales rises. So do prices.
 

2002 - 2004: No longer any liability for loans
 

In 2006 the residential real estate prices in the US reach their peak. The growing mountain of mortgages is increasingly securitized, i.e. taken from bank balances, bundled and transformed into securities fit for the capital market. International investors, not least European banks, acquire them. At the same time, the securitization structures become increasingly complex and the underlying risks increasingly difficult to recognize. 
 

April 2007: The property bubble bursts
 

The proportion of mortgage loans which are not correctly serviced increases noticeably. This affects banks in particular. One loan after the other fails. With the rapid increase in loan defaults, real estate prices also begin to fall, the loan collaterals lose value, and the banks incur heavy losses. In 2007, the first major US real estate financer – the "New Century Financial Corporation" – goes bankrupt.
 

June 2007: Bear Stearns falters
 

The loan defaults reach the securitization market. Highly complex structured credits become worthless virtually overnight. Two hedge funds at the New York investment bank Bear Stearns falter because they had invested on a large-scale in these instruments. Rating agencies begin to downgrade thousands of these securities, sometimes from the highest grade straight to "junk" status.
 

July/August 2007: Europe dragged in the wake
 

German, and other European, banks are hit by the crisis due to irresponsible speculations on the US real estate market.
 

September 2007: Northern Rock cracks
 

Worried customers storm the counters at the British bank, Northern Rock. The government and the Bank of England guarantee the deposits, Northern Rock is taken over by the state.
 

October 2007: Write-offs increase
 

One major financial institution after another reports billion-dollar write-offs and heavy losses.
 

February 2008: Government response in America
 

The US Congress approves an economic stimulus program worth 150 billion dollars.
 

March 2008: Purchase of Bear Stearns
 

Shortly before its collapse, the investment bank Bear Stearns is sold, under pressure from the US Federal Reserve, to the major bank J.P. Morgan Chase. The US government steps in with guarantees.
 

September 6, 2008: Fannie and Freddie are shored up
 

The US government takes over control of the US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 

September 15, 2008: Black Monday
 

Lehman Brothers declares bankruptcy. Other US financial institutions are either forced to be sold or nationalized. The international financial markets are in a state of shock; many banks no longer have access to short-term capital. Even more financial institutions get into difficulties. The last two independent US investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, relinquish their special status on September 21, and become normal commercial banks - in order to gain access to the Fed's liquidity provision.
 

September 19, 2008: TARP in the USA
 

The US government announces the rescue package "Troubled Assets Relief Program" (TARP) for the financial sector encompassing700 billion dollars. TARP sets off a price explosion on the stock exchanges. The USA and Britain impose a far-reaching ban on "short sales", i.e. betting on falling share prices.
 

Late September/early October 2008: Crisis in Iceland
 

Iceland's financial supervisory authorities take over control of its three largest banks. Deposits are frozen. The International Monetary Fund rushes to the rescue.
 

October 13, 2008: Rescue packages in Europe
 

The German government puts forward a bank rescue package of up to 500 billion euros. France puts forward an aid plan worth 360 billion euros. Several other EU countries also put together emergency packages.
 

October 8, 2008: Concerted interest rate cuts at major central banks
 

In a concerted action, several central banks, including the Fed and the European Central Bank, announce key rate cuts on October 8. Both the US central bank and the ECB reduce their key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 1.5 percent and 3.75 percent respectively. For the ECB, this is the first step of many, leading to the current rate of 0.5 percent. In addition, the ECB changes the conditions of its liquidity policy, in view of the almost complete standstill in trade on the interbank market. The allocation procedure is changed to a quality tender in cases of full allocation, i.e. credit institutions receive as much central bank liquidity as they request, against the security of assets. Other special measures follow.
 

The global economic crisis and the way out of the crisis: Read more on Monday.

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Dr. Lorenz Weimann
Allianz SE
Phone +49.89.3800-16891
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