Manuel Bauer: China is going to stay a global motor for growth. In the medium term we can expect to see its gross domestic product grow between 8 and 9 percent a year, which is pretty impressive under today's circumstances.
And what about this year?
Bauer: The economy in China is still expanding rapidly. Third-quarter growth in 2011 dipped a little to 9.1 percent, but compared to other economies that's top marks. For the year, we're looking at economic growth of 9.3 percent in 2011.
With projections like these, how does China rank in the growth markets?
Bauer: Growth markets are becoming more and more important for Allianz. Just look at their share of our results: Today, growth markets contribute around 12 percent to our total revenues. Just five years ago that share was 4 percent. China is contributing to that group and is a big market with a low saturation that has plenty of room to grow.
How exactly, then, does Allianz want to benefit from that development?
Bauer: A lot depends on consumer behavior. That's working by and large in our favor because the demand for insurance is on the rise. Our big advantage in China is our broad line-up. Most Chinese insurers are just in the market for property, automotive and life insurance.
But we have a much bigger spectrum than that; just think of asset management, credit and corporate insurance or all the assistance services we have to offer. So all in all, we're well-situated to participate in China's growing prosperity.
What opportunities do you see in China as an insurer?
Bauer: Just look at the population! China has more than 1.3 billion citizens who want to increase their wealth and consume more. Add to that the low insurance penetration there. A few numbers make it clear: over the next ten years China will become the second largest insurance market in the world. Revenues in the P/C business are forecasted to quadruple – from 40 billion euros in 2010 to more than 160 billion euros. The life insurance market will be even five times larger than in 2010 with more than 500 billion euros of revenues. That means that 25 percent of the global insurance growth will come from China.
In addition, the strong growth of the Chinese economy together with an ageing society will lead to a much higher demand for capital intensive retirement and health products. It will take the full capacity of the world's insurance companies to fulfill the insurance needs of the Chinese society.
