When Prince George becomes king, part 1

The birth of little Prince George: the magic of age-old tradition of the royal family carried on into the distant future. What will that future look like? The prince who is being christened today is expected to one day follow his father on the throne as King George VII. Since longevity runs in his family, he could be 65 or older when that day comes. This world of 2078 will be very different from ours, but today we are creating that world.

 

Part 1 – The changing face of the world
 

Like any parents with a new child, surely William and Kate are thinking about the future of their little one. They will look forward with a mixture of optimism and concern. There is much to come that we cannot predict, but we can see some trends today: population growth, changing mobility habits, energy use, climate change and how all this may shift geopolitics.
 

If baby George does become king when he is 65, how different will his world of 2078 be from the world in 2013? Before we look into the crystal ball, let us first have a quick look back: When Prince Charles was born 65 years ago in 1948, Europe was just emerging from the worst war in its history. This in turn gave momentum to the movement for today's unified Europe, allowing most Europeans to live their entire lives in peace. On the other hand, the British Empire was winding down to be replaced by the Commonwealth of Nations in 1949.

The birth of Prince George continues the tradition of the English throne. What world awaits him when he becomes king?
The birth of Prince George continues the tradition of the English throne. What world awaits him when he becomes king?

Alive and kicking at 65: aging societies
 

By the time little Prince George turns 65, his parents William and Kate will quite likely still be around. According to the UN, there are an estimated 410,000 people over 100 years old today, and by 2078 the number of centenarians will rise to 11.3 million. So at 65, George will be more middle-aged than a senior, and he won’t be alone. In a study on centenarians, Michaela Grimm, senior economist at Allianz, commented, "In the future, people who reach a very old age will no longer be a rarity."
 

Even though birth rates are expected to decrease in the future, with people living this long, the world population will continue to rise. Back when Prince Charles was born, the earth hosted a mere 2.5 billion people. Just two years ago, we were up to seven billion. By 2078, the world could have as many as ten billion people. If the prince's coronation is in 2078, Britain’s population is likely to be a bit higher than it is today. Nonetheless, Europe's population will have shrunk by ten percent.
 

This also means that when George begins work as king, it will no longer be unusual for people over 65 to be working full time. With this kind of aging society, we will have to rethink many things, from city planning to the workplace. Strategic workforce planning today is essential to match the size and skills profile of a future workforce with future business demands. The markets for "senior-friendly" building and products will continue to boom, while banks and insurance companies will need to adapt their financial products.
 

"In this future world, our concept of working and pensions will be completely obsolete," says Volker Deville, Allianz executive vice president and co-organizer of the annual Berlin Demography Forum. "There will probably still be some form of government support for seniors, and people will continue to save for their old age, but people in 2078 will be working more later in life. They’ll be healthier and motivated to work, so the biggest policy challenge today is investing in their education so that they have the skills they need tomorrow."
 

So it won’t be Prince George alone who will be looking forward to working as king at the age of 65 – many of his compatriots will also be far from retired at this age. 

The Windsors are known for long lifespans.
The Windsors are known for long lifespans.
In the future our concept of retirement will be obsolete. When Prince George is 65, it will no longer be unusual for people at his age to be working full time.

In the future our concept of retirement will be obsolete. When Prince George is 65, it will no longer be unusual for people at his age to be working full time.

The economy and politics: new world orders
 

The world will probably be richer in 2078, both in total and on average, but the concentrations of wealth will have changed. China will long have been the world’s largest single economy and drawn much of the rest of Asia with it. There could even be a single Asian currency to make trade there easier. In King George VII’s Britain, the manufacturing industry will now practically be extinct - following the trend that began in the 1970s. The British economy’s focus will be almost exclusively on services, with offshore London flourishing as a financial services hub.
 

By the time Prince George is king, the European Union will probably have many more members. The union will have a more integrated market but may have a more flexible union, both things that will appeal to today’s Britain. Europe would not be a "superpower" in 2078, as it never has aspired to be one. However, the world will be multi-polar, with China, India and the United States among the big players.
 

Asia will still have the largest population, but most population growth will take place in Africa. It will go from having 14 percent to one third of the world's population. "If the African nations can succeed in leveraging this demographic advantage, the reign of King George VII could take place during the 'African Century'," says Wolfgang Ischinger, Global Head of Group Public Policy and Economic Research. The fact that his father William loves Africa – Kate and William got engaged in Kenya in 2010 – will surely make young George a fan of the continent before long.
 

We will probably be less reliant on oil, but we can expect conflicts over more basic resources like water and rare earths. It will mean new alliances, but will probably also mean that Europe and the United States will have grown even more closer, as their common interests outweigh their differences.
 

"The grown-up Prince George, our decision-makers of tomorrow and our descendants will be facing challenges that mainly have their origins in today's world," says Ischinger. "We also have a responsibility today to determine their course."

 

Tomorrow Part 2 –- Mobility: How the world will get around

As a result of demographic change, the reign of King George VII could take place during the “African century”.
As a result of demographic change, the reign of King George VII could take place during the “African century”.

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Petra Brandes
Allianz SE
Phone +49.89.3800-18797
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Nikolai Tewes
Allianz SE
Phone +49.89.3800-4511
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Dr. Lorenz Weimann
Allianz SE
Phone +49.89.3800-16891
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