Floods like these could happen again

How extreme was the flood event of August 2002?

David Maréchal: The flood in August 2002 was an extreme event, with extremely heavy rains coming down in a very short time. The anti-flood plains or reservoirs could only take in a small amount of this water – small streams became torrents within hours, rivers turned into lakes, houses were gripped by the masses of water, towns were inundated. But: events like this have happened before. For examples, a similar flood happened in Prague in July 1432; and in 1997, Poland and the north of Czech Republic saw an event of simil

 

A lot of discussions followed this event, whether the towns and regions had been well prepared. There was a lot of criticism.

People should be careful, before they criticize. Being prepared of course is good: people should have the right insurance and make sure that they follow orders, for example, when they are asked to evacuate their home. Towns should have emergency plans in place. Hydrologists should closely monitor water levels. However, when such an extreme event occurs, you can be as well prepared as you like, but you will not be able to stop the water masses. It is good that a city like Prague has now got a good flood barrier in the historic old town – but this comes at a price too. A flood barrier only shifts the location of the flooding, it does not stop the flooding.

David Maréchal, senior hydrologist in the Allianz Re team for catastrophe research
David Maréchal, senior hydrologist in the Allianz Re team for catastrophe research
The most devestating floods since 2002

An extreme flood event also always leads to a discussion about climate change. What is your opinion?

We do expect to see more winter floods in the future. As temperatures increase, there will be more rain in the winter. The cycle is changing. Some models suggest that the frequency of extreme summer rainfall and resulting floods might increase as well. Furthermore, the number of flash floods in the summer could rise. However, prognoses heavily depend on the location we are speaking about. And it must be stressed, that it is difficult to determine trends of such extreme events like the floods in the summer of 2002.

 

The flood of 2002 is the most expensive flood in Europe to date, what made it so costly?

One of our greatest challenges is to differentiate between the increasing volatility of the climate on the one hand and the rising exposure on the other. Over the past years, there has been an enormous increase of the loss potential. The average exposure per decade has been doubling and tripling and the trend continues. There are many socio-economic factors at stake: flood prone regions partly made impermeable by urbanisation, intensive agricultural land use, private property or industry.

The 100-year flood in 2002: Affected regions

If you say that such an event could happen again, what can we do to protect ourselves?

People should think about the risk of a flood before they buy property or before they build a house. Then they should think about insurance – the right type of insurance. And they should not think that just because they live far from the river, they are safe from the flood risk – flash floods are increasing as well and they can occur pretty much anywhere.

The 100-year flood in 2002

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Katerina Piro
Allianz SE
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