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Transatlantic Free Trade Zone: A promising, but difficult venture

At around 5%, global trade has been growing at an annual rate that is almost twice as fast as global economic output (+2.7% a year) over the past ten years. Exports have evidently shown much more dynamic development than domestic demand, i.e. consumption and investment. So we do not need to resort to economic theories in order to highlight the fact that the expansion in international trade has been one of the main drivers behind growing prosperity levels.

The nursing insurance scheme and the nursing care sector in Germany: Challenges and opportunities

Based on a series of model calculations, the economists of Allianz Dresdner Economic Research have forecast the development of the nursing care sector until 2050 and – taking for the first time the nursing care reform 2008 into consideration – have estimated the contribution rate development of the social nursing insurance scheme and its sustainability gap and have made a detailed calculation of the reform proposals. The only way that funding of the nursing insurance scheme can be guaranteed is if a transition is made to a funded system. We have developed such a reform model and quantified the change-over costs, and have also illustrated the possibilities of dividing up the costs.

Central and eastern European demographics - that shrinking feeling!

Overall populations in CEE countries and especially the working-age population will decline significantly by 2050. Over the coming decades those in work will have to support a sharply rising proportion of retirees. This will be mitigated somewhat by the fact that in CEE countries the old, pay-as-you-go financed pension schemes have been replaced by more modern multi-pillar pension schemes with substantial funded elements. Apart from pension spending, ageing populations also push up costs for health and long-term care, too. On the other hand, the CEE countries have a high growth potential and for the next 25 years this will probably more than offset the adverse effects due to demographic change. But from 2030 a significant drop in the labor pool will have a negative impact on growth potential.

Reform of German health system – “Citizen’s insurance“ models

The federal government has declared the funding of the German health sector as one its main priorities in 2006. But the models put forward by the two governing parties could hardly be more different. While the SPD has for some time favored a citizen’s insurance based on the principle of solidarity (“solidarische Bürgerversicherung”), CDU and CSU have argued whether earnings-related contributions or a health premium offer the best solution.

Demography and property market

Rising life expectancy and low birth rates have characterized demographic trends in Germany for over 30 years. The upshot: an increase in the average age and a drop in the population. What are the implications of a 10 % drop in the population for the residential property market?

Nursing care insurance in need of therapy

Capital market forecasts are standard practice for any major financial corporation. Medium-term trends are more heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables than are short-term fluctuations. It therefore makes sense to deploy an econometric model to analyze capital market trends.

Germany: Health reform triggers sharp drop in number of hospitals

In Germany hospitals gobble up by far the largest share (35 %) of statutory health insurance spending. With the capital intensity of hospital services set to rise going forward, it is essential to provide a statutory framework offering hospitals an incentive to operate more efficiently.

Global liquidity glut: problem or growth driver?

Following the extremely expansive stance of monetary policy in recent years, monetary growth has got well ahead of economic activity, giving rise to substantial excess supply. As long as external factors such as globalization curb the rise in unit labor costs, there are justified grounds to hope that this will not fuel inflationary trends. However, even if the euro area economy were to slow further, we do not see any further scope for a rate cut.

Demographics - what lies ahead?

In recent years demographic trends in Germany have increasingly been grabbing the headlines. This Working Paper looks at future population trends in Germany and the resulting consequences. We also take a look across the borders.