New dawn in Africa

Though some countries in sub-Saharan Africa are benefiting from the boom in commodities, others are at a disadvantage. Even if prices are unable to maintain their currently exceptionally high level, they will nonetheless remain buoyant compared to previous decades and bolster economic momentum.

Although a number of countries are still embroiled in civil war and economic chaos, the region has experienced a general rise in political and economic stability. The foreign currency liquidity situation in many countries can be termed comfortable, with economic policy being determined to a lesser degree by regional interests.

The fragmentation of sub-Saharan Africa into many small countries makes it practically impossible to achieve high economies of scale in industrial production due to the lack of cross-border free trade agreements, single jurisdictions and larger economic centers. Efforts being undertaken in the manufacturing industry will focus on the processing of mining and agricultural commodities.

A middle class is starting to emerge in bigger cities, which is stoking up demand forhigher-quality products. The service sector and, here in particular, the financial sector will benefit from this. The expansion of infrastructure and of housing construction should further boost the construction industry.

The sub-Saharan African economy can be expected to grow in the next 10 years in real terms by at least 6-7.5 % a year.

We expect above-average growth rates to be achieved in, among other places, Nigeria, Angola and Mozambique.