On the reliability of population projections

The unexpected increase in the German population to an estimated 82.8 million as a result of the influx of refugees has sparked a debate on just how reliable population projections are.

The economic value of security

Security is a fundamental human need, second in importance only to physiological needs such as the consumption of food.

An interest rate model for the eurozone and the US

Our extended interest rate model offers possible explanations for key interest rates, money market rates and long-term interest rates in the eurozone and the US that offer a high level of adaptability to the actual developments.

German economic forecast 2017

We expect the German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2017 after 1.9% in 2016. Consumption remains the driving force. We expect the global economic activity to pick up somewhat. The US economic outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty.

Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

The outcome of Italy’s constitutional referendum on December 4th will probably have limited immediate impact on either the economy or the political system.

The yield on private financial assets - Germany in an international comparison

In December 2015, we analyzed asset yields of households in several eurozone countries for the years 2010 to 2014. The results were, at least for German households, sobering: Together with Austria, they showed the lowest yields, clearly below 3%.

Commodity prices - is the bear market over?

In the past few months commodity prices have bounced back on a broad front having in some cases fallen sharply in recent years. This drop is to be seen as part of a classic commodity cycle that was driven primarily by the dynamic growth in the emerging markets, especially in China.

Emerging markets: Sustainable turnaround in capital inflows?

For several months now emerging markets have been enjoying increased popularity again among portfolio investors.

Climate risk insurance: New approaches and schemes

Finding solutions for how to deal with the impacts of climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time. It is the least and less developed countries which are the most affected by increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as droughts or floods, while being the least capable of coping with them.