Our extended interest rate model offers possible explanations for key interest rates, money market rates and long-term interest rates in the eurozone and the US that offer a high level of adaptability to the actual developments.
We expect the German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2017 after 1.9% in 2016. Consumption remains the driving force. We expect the global economic activity to pick up somewhat. The US economic outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty.
The outcome of Italy’s constitutional referendum on December 4th will probably have limited immediate impact on either the economy or the political system.
In December 2015, we analyzed asset yields of households in several eurozone countries for the years 2010 to 2014. The results were, at least for German households, sobering: Together with Austria, they showed the lowest yields, clearly below 3%.
In the past few months commodity prices have bounced back on a broad front having in some cases fallen sharply in recent years. This drop is to be seen as part of a classic commodity cycle that was driven primarily by the dynamic growth in the emerging markets, especially in China.
Finding solutions for how to deal with the impacts of climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time. It is the least and less developed countries which are the most affected by increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as droughts or floods, while being the least capable of coping with them.
The Allianz Euro Monitor uses 20 indicators to measure macroeconomic imbalances in the eurozone. The results for 2015 show that economic stability in the currency union has increased.
