Dr. Lorenz Weimann
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Whereas the business climate in manufacturing broadly stagnated at a high level and slipped marginally in construction, wholesaling and retailing recorded marked improvements. This is a good sign that consumption has accelerated again in the second quarter of this year. In both the preceding quarters real private consumption edged up by only a meager 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. In the first quarter the household savings was at a seven-year high, creating leeway for stronger consumer demand over the rest of the year. Exports are also likely to provide a substantial boost in the second quarter. All in all, we see quarterly growth in the German economy of 0.5-0.6% in the second quarter, pretty much on a par with Q1. Much suggests that the broad-based upswing will continue in the second half of the year.
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