The jump in new orders in December as well as in the fourth quarter of 2014 as a whole suggests that industrial production will pick up further in the early months of this year. Foreign industrial demand is now on a firm upward trend, hardly surprising given the boost to exporters’ competitiveness from the exchange rate. But service sectors are also likely to increasingly feel wind in their sails. The sharp rise in purchasing power on the back of the oil price slide has already given a substantial lift to retail demand. Retail sales in the fourth quarter of last year were already 1.6% up on the previous quarter. 2015 looks set to be a year of consumption. Against this backdrop, we expect gross domestic product, having risen by an estimated 0.25% in the final quarter of last year, to climb by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year and grow by 2.0% on average in 2015.