To put it in context: At 101.7 points, the business climate index is roughly at the level of the second quarter of 2017, when the German economy grew strongly. However, a significant difference to last year can be seen when looking at the individual components of the index. In the second quarter of 2017, companies assessed their current situation to be somewhat less favorable than they are currently doing. However, they are at present somewhat more cautious about their business expectations for the next six months than last year.
In principle, we assume that the German economy will continue to grow solidly in the second half of 2018. The domestic economic conditions for a continuation of the upswing remain very good. This applies in particular to private consumption (favorable employment and wage trends) and investment activity (high capacity utilization, favorable financing conditions and relatively low corporate debt). A major risk to this assessment is the considerable risk of a further escalation in the trade dispute with the US. Especially in the event that the US should impose higher import tariffs on cars as threatened, which would hit the German automotive industry particularly hard, this year's growth forecast of 2.1% (not adjusted for calendar effects) could not be kept.