Last year, the global economy proved fairly resilient in the face of unexpected shocks. Neither concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy nor major political surprises – including the result of the Brexit referendum in June and the outcome of the US presidential elections in November – managed to knock the global economy off its moderate growth path.
Elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, the move of the US President-elect Donald Trump into the Oval Office, the start of Brexit negotiations – given the elevated uncertainty hanging over political and economic developments next year, there is really only one thing that is certain: 2017 will be an eventful and interesting year.
One of the main headaches that has been plaguing financial markets in recent months is the possibility of further devaluation of the Chinese yuan. It would make Chinese exports even more competitive and is therefore seen as a risk that reinforces deflationary pressures on world markets.
Since last summer, concerns about the strength of the global recovery have been rising again. While the focus was initially on emerging markets, in particular China, more recent worries have centered around the US.