Our long-term yields proprietary model shows that the current flat shape of the yield curve is likely to stay. Additionally, the current anchoring of the short end of the curve by the Federal Reserve at 2.5% plus the implicit stickiness of the long end of the curve, fairly valued at 2.5%, hints at the possibility of further yield curve inversion. The warning signs derived from the current and future shape of the yield curve suggest that a US economic downturn is probable. Investors need to look towards a downside risk-managing investment strategy.