Is there really an ever-widening rural-urban divide in Europe?

 

But does convergence lead to more equality, i.e. are poor areas growing fast enough to close the absolute gap with richer ones? Here the picture is mixed: At first glance, disparities are rising due to the outstanding performance of a handful of “super-champion” areas in Europe, namely urban ones. But GINI coefficients and income concentration measures do paint a more nuanced picture, indicating improvements for the poorest regions over time. The GINI-coefficient for all European areas dropped from 0.26 in 2000 to 0.25 in 2018, meaning that there is (slightly) less inequality between the areas.

The urban areas are also the driving forces behind national convergence in Europe. We find that countries with lower initial GDP per capita levels – mainly Eastern and central European ones – show significantly higher growth rates, allowing them to improve their relative position, measured as GDP per capita as a percentage of the EU average. All in all, new EU members (Romania, Estonia) experience real income convergence, while old members (Greece, Italy) are mostly losing ground. However, the cost of catching up for Central and Eastern European countries is increasing divergence between urban areas and others.

Contact

Arne Holzhausen
Allianz SE