Household debt: The post-crisis era of restraint is over

In most parts of the world, debts grew faster in 2017 than in the previous year. The growth rate increased over the course of the year from 3.3% to 3.8% in North America, from 5.9% to 6.2% in Oceania, from 2.6% to 3.0% in Western Europe, from 4.8% to 7.4% in Eastern Europe and from 6.7% to 8.4% in Latin America. In contrast, borrowing slowed slightly in Japan (from 2.4% to 1.8%) and the rest of Asia, albeit it remained on a very high level (from 16.5% to 15.8% of GDP).The geographical distribution of liabilities is similar to that of assets. The richer parts of the world accounted for a total of three-quarters of global debt at the end of 2017 (North America 36.4%, Western Europe 27.6%, Oceania 4.2% and Japan 6.6%). However, their total share came to around 90% at the beginning of the last decade, which means that the emerging regions of Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia (excluding Japan) have significantly increased in importance. Private liabilities in these three regions more than quadrupled to around EUR 10 trillion in total in the period from 2007 to 2017, with average annual growth rates of 11.5% in Eastern Europe, 12.6% in Latin America and as much as 14.8% in Asia (excluding Japan).

More articles in the November-December issue of The View:

  • 2018-2019: Looking back, looking forward
  • Russia: Weathering a US storm
  • Economic update: North America, Western Europe, Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, Middle East, Africa

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Lorenz Weimann
Allianz SE