Risks in the corporate sector are expected to rise. Even though the Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) of listed companies indicate that large firms are enjoying relatively good payment discipline, the overall non-payment risk has steadily risen over the last three years. This is reflected in the ongoing uptrend in business insolvencies (+10% p.a. on average in 2016-2018). We expect corporate insolvencies to increase by another +10% in 2019, posing particular risks to large-scale suppliers of Polish companies.

Despite the boom over the past five years, policy choices have led to a deterioration in the attractiveness of doing business in and with Poland. Feuds between the Polish government and the EU may even put future EU funding flows at risk. Thus, the best days in terms of strong economic performance could be behind for Poland. However, there are opportunities and room for maneuvering for the next government to reverse those critical policy moves and improve the overall business and investment climate.