Looking at the manifestos, we expect the newly formed Commission to focus on purchasing power and social policy; security, defense and climate change over the next five years. The three-party agenda could also be supported by non-traditional parties. On the other hand, business-friendly reforms, and bolder, yet dividing, policy blocks for Europe do not appear to be on top of the list.

When looking into the details, we identify three clusters of priorities for the next Commission:

First “easy breezy” topics, which should get wide-ranging support in the first half of the five-year mandate. This includes the reform of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM); higher infrastructure spending; strengthened migration controls; stronger European security and defence policy; increased climate change mitigation reforms and the ratification of a Brexit deal.

Second, “mixed feelings” topics, which are not yet on the agenda but the US-China rivalry and mounting populism could help prioritize and which get support in the second half of the five-year mandate. These are: a common industrial policy (CIP) including the Buy European Act, an unemployment reinsurance scheme, and the proceedings against EU countries which deviate from European democratic values.

Last, “hard-to-pass-without-a-miracle” topics during the five-year mandate, in the context of a fragmented European Parliament: the European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS) allowing to finalize the Banking Union; the Capital Market Union (CMU) and less financial regulation; new Free Trade Agreements (FTA); a central budget for the Eurozone with a dedicated common Finance Minister and further EU enlargement.