To calculate the impact of increasing regulatory intensity on global industry, we analyze the most important measures that are currently enacted or under discussion, grouping them into the following categories: carbon pricing, energy and efficiency mandates, mobility regulations and industry-specific taxes, fines and levies. We calculate that the negative impact will be nearly USD 2.5tn over the next ten years.
The energy sector will be hit the hardest, with an estimated cost of USD900bn. The steel sector follows, with a cost of USD 300bn. Air and marine transport faces a cost of USD55bn. Including a number of not yet quantifiable measures, such as shipping speed limit reductions, further emissions cap reductions and industrial regulations could provide further upside to the cost impact. Other sectors at risk include automotive, chemicals, pulp and paper, retail and machinery/manufacturing