- We created the Social Risk Index (SRI) to identify which countries are particularly vulnerable to systemic social risk, including events such as anti-government protests and other incidents that could become game-changers for politics and policymaking, as well as business and investment decisions. The SRI comprises structural determinants that measure underlying strengths, weaknesses and the perceptions of political, institutional and social frameworks for 102 countries, ranking them with a score between 0 (highest risk) and 100 (lowest risk).
- The SRI neither measures the probability of a social crisis nor predicts the next social unrest event. It is rather a vulnerability indicator that focuses on the longer term structural determinants of social risk.
- Denmark, Finland and Sweden make the top three of the SRI 2020, exhibiting the lowest levels of social risk. Germany is placed 5th and France 9th.
- Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola exhibit the highest levels of social risk in our sample. Venezuela and Angola have also experienced some of the largest deteriorations over the past five years.
- Advanced Economies (AEs) are generally less vulnerable to systemic social risk than Emerging Markets (EMs), with Greece (rank 35) and Italy (30th) placed lowest among all AEs.
- Slovenia (rank 15), Estonia (17th) and Qatar (21st) are the best-ranked EMs.
- On a regional basis for EMs, economies from Emerging Europe are placed best on average, while Africa and Latin America exhibit the highest social risk levels in the near future.
Social Risk Index
Social Risk Index