European labor markets: Migration matters

• Until 2050, the working age population in the EU-27 will shrink by 20%. Italy, Spain and Germany will be hit even harder by demographic change. Against this background we took a closer look at what it could take to cushion the effect of demographic change on the labor markets in the four largest economies Germany, France, Italy and Spain, running scenarios with different combinations of labor force participation, productivity and migration.

What to watch I February 08, 2024

EM currencies at risk in 2024, inventories weighing on growth, the costs of concentration risks and the EU’s new climate target

China: keeping the Dragon awake

With its real estate and foreign investment engines sputtering, China desperately needs new drivers of growth. The real estate sector has gone from hero to zero since mid-2021: We estimate real estate development has been -26% lower than its pre-pandemic trend.

What to watch I February 02, 2024

European farmers unite in unrest, industrial policy déjà vu in Brazil and ECOWAS put to the test

Country Risk Atlas 2024

The Country Risk Atlas is a new flagship publication from Allianz Research that provides comprehensive insights on the economic, political and ESG factors that influence non-payment risk for companies in 83 countries.

What to watch I January 26, 2024

An early pivot for the Fed would be costly, inventory glut to reduce Red Sea bullwhip effects, and the Eurozone getting its very own soft landing

Europe needs to step up its game: Lessons from the American playbook

The economic gap between the US and the Eurozone has almost tripled since the foundation of the Euro. In 1999, the year the Euro was introduced, the US economy was 11% larger than the Eurozone in purchasing power parity terms; this gap has since widened to 30%.

What to watch I January 19, 2024

ECB expected on hold again, China ready for new stimulus and high-yield debt on the radar 

Allianz Risk Barometer: Identifying the major business risks for 2024

The most important corporate concerns for the year ahead, ranked by 3,069 risk management experts from 92 countries and territories.