Soft growth environment, medium-term challenges persist

Last update – January 2023
Business environment risk
Political risk
Commercial risk
Financing risk
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GDP USD1293.04bn (World ranking 15, World Bank 2021)
Population 130.26mn (World ranking 10, World Bank 2021)
Form of state
Federal Republic
Head of government
Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (President)
Next elections
2024, General Election
  • Sound macro-policy framework: fiscal spending is capped and pro-active inflation-targeting central bank
  • Moderate debt ratios and strong external position (manageable current account deficit, large FX reserves)
  • Strong legacy from pro-business reforms in the last decade
  • Structural business environment exceeds Latin American average
  • Durable political framework with stable handovers of power
  • Member of OECD
  • Easy access to capital markets
  • Support from IFIs likely if needed
  • Financial integration means market volatility is driven by both domestic (more or less pro-business stance) and external (US) policy risk. Trade uncertainty dissipated but doubts over the implementation of NAFTA remain
  • Fiscal position highly sensitive to oil price (oil = 30% of public revenues)
  • Sensitive to US business cycle (around 80% of exports)
  • Skewed income distribution (geographically as well as among socio-economic groups), still high poverty levels
  • Security issues related to drug-trafficking
  • Rule of Law and control of corruption below Latin America’s average

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  Exports Rank Imports  
United States 78.1% 1 43.7% United States
Canada 2.6% 2 19.9% China
China 1.8% 3 3.7% Korea
Taiwan 1.5% 4 3.4% Germany
Germany 1.5% 5 3.4% Japan

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Exports Rank Imports
Road vehicles 22.6%
1 14.3 % Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s. 10.8%
2 7.4% Road vehicles
Office machines and automatic data processing machines 7.7% 3 6.0% Office machines and automatic data processing machines
Telecommunication and sound recording apparatus 6.2% 4 5.5% Other industrial machinery and parts
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials 5.5% 5 5.1% Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
Contact Allianz Trade
Economic Research Team
Roberta Fortes
Allianz Trade