Mexico
Soft growth environment, medium-term challenges persist
Last update – January 2023
Country rating

MEDIUM RISK FOR ENTERPRISE
Economic risk
Business environment risk
Political risk
Commercial risk
Financing risk
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GDP | USD1293.04bn (World ranking 15, World Bank 2021) |
Population | 130.26mn (World ranking 10, World Bank 2021) |
Form of state |
Federal Republic |
Head of government |
Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (President) |
Next elections |
2024, General Election |
Strengths & weaknesses

- Sound macro-policy framework: fiscal spending is capped and pro-active inflation-targeting central bank
- Moderate debt ratios and strong external position (manageable current account deficit, large FX reserves)
- Strong legacy from pro-business reforms in the last decade
- Structural business environment exceeds Latin American average
- Durable political framework with stable handovers of power
- Member of OECD
- Easy access to capital markets
- Support from IFIs likely if needed

- Financial integration means market volatility is driven by both domestic (more or less pro-business stance) and external (US) policy risk. Trade uncertainty dissipated but doubts over the implementation of NAFTA remain
- Fiscal position highly sensitive to oil price (oil = 30% of public revenues)
- Sensitive to US business cycle (around 80% of exports)
- Skewed income distribution (geographically as well as among socio-economic groups), still high poverty levels
- Security issues related to drug-trafficking
- Rule of Law and control of corruption below Latin America’s average
Economic overview
Trade structure by destination/origin
(% of total, 2021)
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Exports | Rank | Imports | ||
United States 78.1% |
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1 |
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43.7% United States |
Canada 2.6% |
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2 |
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19.9% China |
China 1.8% |
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3 |
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3.7% Korea |
Taiwan 1.5% |
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4 |
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3.4% Germany |
Germany 1.5% |
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5 |
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3.4% Japan |
Trade structure by product
(% of total, 2021)
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Exports | Rank | Imports |
Road vehicles 22.6% |
1 | 14.3 % Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s. |
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s. 10.8% |
2 | 7.4% Road vehicles |
Office machines and automatic data processing machines 7.7% | 3 | 6.0% Office machines and automatic data processing machines |
Telecommunication and sound recording apparatus 6.2% | 4 | 5.5% Other industrial machinery and parts |
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials 5.5% | 5 | 5.1% Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials |
Contact
Contact Allianz Trade
Economic Research Team
Economic Research Team
Roberta Fortes
Allianz Trade
Allianz Trade