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Nov 06, 2020

The U.S. Elections turn into a judiciary battle: What's next

As of 06 November, Joe Biden appears to have the higher chance of becoming the next U.S. President, with the Senate possibly remaining in the hands of the Republicans. We expect President Trump to use every possible means to contest the election results if they appear to be against him. A judiciary battle could last until 08 December, potentially requiring the intervention of the Supreme Court.

 

Nov 05, 2020

The Eurozone recovery after ‘lockdown light’

Lockdown 2.0 or ‘lockdown light’ in Europe embodies the stop-and-go strategy, which should follow epidemic cycles until a post-vaccine return to normal in 2022. Yet these new restrictions are not a replay of Spring 2020 as their economic hit to Q4 2020 GDP should prove 30-60% less severe. 

 

Nov 03, 2020

Consumers and climate policy

For the EU to reach its target of climate neutrality by 2050, they will have to change their behavior, but our research shows on average 46% of French and 44% of Germans respondents are not prepared to pay more for climate-friendly products. 

 

Oct 29, 2020

Dual circulation: China’s way of reshoring?

Over the long run, the Chinese economy is facing two key challenges: declining potential growth and a deteriorating external environment. Our growth potential model suggests China’s GDP growth is likely to average between +3.8% and +4.9% over the coming decade (after +7.6% in the 2010s), due to declining labor supply and slowing productivity and capital investment. 

 

Oct 28, 2020

Sporting goods are a rare bright spot in Covid times

Sporting goods are one of the rare winners from the Covid-19 outbreak amid a decimated discretionary retail industry: we expect U.S. retail sales of sporting goods to hit an all-time high of USD48bn in 2020. 

 

Oct 27, 2020

The transatlantic spread: Pricing in inflation (un)certainty

The transatlantic yield spread between the U.S. and the Eurozone narrowed by over 80bp until mid-September but has clearly re-widened lately. The prevailing view among market participants seems to be that this divergence reflects a divergence in economic momentum as the Eurozone is heading for a double dip.

 

Oct 21, 2020

U.S., Europe or China: Who is the global climate’s superhero?

Covid-19 will upend the old pecking order in the global economy – and in climate policy. China is not only leading the economic recovery post-Covid-19 but also seems to be shifting from laggard to leader in climate policy, with President Xi Jinping’s pledge for net-zero emissions by 2060. 

 

Oct 20, 2020

A hard Brexit could cost the EU EUR33bn in annual exports

The odds for a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 have considerably increased to 45%. While we do still expect a last-minute compromise, given the social, political and economic consequences of such an outcome on top of the continuing Covid-19 crisis in the UK and across Europe in general, a Hard Brexit could cost as much as EUR33bn in annual exports to the EU.

 

Oct 19, 2020

China: Winning export markets share despite the Covid-19 crisis

China’s exporters have been gaining market share since they exited the Covid-19 crisis. Out of the top 20 exporters in the world, China’s total market share now stands at c.25%, compared to an average of c.20% over 2017-19.

 

Oct 15, 2020

Eurozone: Double dip and structural weaknesses

As Covid19-related restrictions are retightened, we expect key European economies to contract again in the final quarter of 2020. We forecast GDP to drop by -1.3% q/q in Spain, -1.1% q/q in France and–1.0% q/q in the Netherlands. 

 

138 releases in total