'Dear Santa': Our economists' wish list for 2021

As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts , our economists were caught daydreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true. 

2021-2022: Vaccine economics

The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.

US & EMU Corporate Spreads

Two recent events have cleared the way for a second wave of spread tightening, leading them closer to their pre-pandemic levels. 1) the resolution of the US presidential elections and 2) the positive news around the vaccines timeline and availability. 

Growing pains: The future of incomes for lockdown Gen-Z

The youth labor market is highly sensitive to economic cycles, with young people more likely to be in precarious employment than any other age group. After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), it took years to recover across Europe and it could take even longer to recover from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic as it will hinder human capital accumulation, punishing young workers further and widening already present intergenerational inequalities.

Global supply chain survey

After the Covid-19 lockdowns disrupted global supply chains and put the concepts of supply-chain resilience and reshoring on every policymaker’s lips, we decided to check the pulse of companies in the U.S., the UK, France, Germany and Italy. 

Wanted: Public borrowers of last resort

Recent monetary developments in the EMU are a reminder that it is simplistic and therefore risky to sum up the fuzzy concept of liquidity with QE as if it was the alpha and omega of monetary phenomena.

ECB: Another EUR 1.6 trillion in QE to reach the light at the end of the tunnel

Household confidence will play a key role in France's economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. But unlike consumption, confidence never recovered to its pre-crisis level even when the first lockdown was lifted. The confidence recovery could only gain traction as of Easter 2021, under the hypothesis of a larger scale vaccination campaign being implemented and continued fiscal support from the government. 

France: Improved confidence to boost consumer spending by EUR10bn in 2021

Household confidence will play a key role in France's economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. But unlike consumption, confidence never recovered to its pre-crisis level even when the first lockdown was lifted. The confidence recovery could only gain traction as of Easter 2021, under the hypothesis of a larger scale vaccination campaign being implemented and continued fiscal support from the government. 

French and German savers: The unequal twins

French and German savers have many things in common: Their level of financial assets per capita is similar and its development over the last decade has been almost identical. 

Global sovereign debt market: Not seeing the trees for the forest

Global public debt will hit an all-time high in 2020 and this won’t be without consequences for debt sustainability, particularly for the most fragile economies.