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Is Germany a “stranded” economy?

After four consecutive years of strong economic growth above the potential rate, the high-flying German economy experienced a sharp deceleration in momentum in 2018. The combination of some key characteristics of Europe’s largest economy proved highly unfavorable in an environment of slowing global momentum and elevated political uncertainty.

Global insolvencies: Record high failures of major companies

On top of the upward trend in business insolvencies , we identify a record level of failures of large companies - those with over EUR50mn of turnover- with 342 major insolvencies totaling more than EUR205bn in turnover in 2019. 

Don’t judge the inflation book by its cover

Market-based long-term inflation expectations tend to concur. They are meaningful because capital markets participants are incentivized to price them as accurately as possible: more directly than other agents, they have skin in the game.

Coronavirus outbreak: USD26bn weekly in trade spillovers

Following our estimate of the economic impact on China, we look into the impact on the rest of the world: manufacturing and trade recessions are likely to continue, with a trade shock of USD26bn per week from the lockdowns in China (which should end on 9 February at the earliest), and global growth barely staying afloat at +2% in Q1 2020.

Hong Kong: The recession is likely to deepen in Q1 2020

Hong Kong’s GDP declined again in Q4 2019, by -0.4% q/q from the previous quarter. In y/y terms, the -2.9% decline in Q4 2019 constitutes the largest quarterly slowdown since the global financial crisis. 

Coronavirus outbreak in China: Risks of supply chain disruption increase with time

The official PMIs for January released today do not yet reflect the magnitude of the economic concerns around the ongoing coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China. 

Italy: A strong setback at the end of the year

Preliminary GDP in Q4 came out significantly below expectations at -0.3% qoq. If this figure is confirmed, real growth in Italy will have stagnated in 2019.

France: The cost of division on economic growth

French GDP declined by -0.1% q/q in Q4 2019, below expectations.. Household consumption decelerated at 0.2% q/q in Q4 2019 compared with 0.4% q/q in Q3.

Brexit: A UK-EU trade deal is unlikely in 2020

A trade deal agreement with the EU by June 2020 seems unlikely, paving the way for a longer transition period.

Mexico: The great flattening

Q4 2019 Mexico’s GDP growth came in unchanged from Q3, which confirms our view that it has escaped technical recession, yet remaining flat for the second half of the year.