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Financial Assets: Happy without interest rates?

The financial assets of German savers – bank deposits, equities, bonds, funds and insurance – are likely to have risen by 6.7%, or EUR 400 billion, to around EUR 6.4 trillion in the past year.

Implied volatility isn´t as forward-looking as you think

Market risk, that is to say the variability of returns from one period to the next, or volatility, is one of the many risks faced by investors in equities, bonds and currencies. In the case of U.S. equities, the VIX by the Chicago Board Option exchange (CBOE) measures implied volatility, i.e. the level of volatility implied by the prices of S&P options. It is seen as a forward looking measure, in contrast to realized (or actual) volatility, which measures the variability of historical (or known) prices.

The solid Conservative majority would lead to higher growth

The polls were right this time: In the UK elections, the Conservative Party won a solid majority of 74 seats - the party's largest since Thatcher’s election in 1987. -This will allow them to “get Brexit done” in 2020, reducing the uncertainty in the UK economy. Risks of early elections are rather low in the next three years.

What drives the ECB? An Augmented Taylor Rule for the Eurozone

The European Central Bank’s primary task is the pursuit of price stability, which is defined as inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Our analysis shows that inflation and output gap considerations explain half of the ECB’s monetary policy stance over the past decade. 

Is China winning the Insurtech race?

China’s insurance market is already the second biggest in the world. By the end of the next decade, the Chinese insurance market is set to become the world’s biggest in terms of premiums. 

COP25: No such thing as a free lunch

In a context of rising pressure to meet emissions targets, the COP25 summit is likely to be a catalyst for tightening and intensifying climate change regulation in the years to come.

What is already priced into long-term U.S. Bond yields?

While there is robust evidence that long-term adaptive expectations are in the driving seat, we find that short-term rational expectations contribute to fluctuations around the trend.

Trade Wars: May the Trade Force be with you

In 2019, global trade of goods and services could grow at its slowest pace in a decade (+1.5%). 

Germany: German consumer saves the day

The German economy narrowly avoided a technical recession.

Which country is the best in class for SMEs?

Our 2019 SMЕ Business Climate Index (SMEB) assesses the business еnvirоnmеnt for SMEs in 13 selected economies.