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Economic Insight: Italy Election Watch: Limited downside, limited upside

Will Italy turn Eurosceptic in 2018? In Italy’s upcoming parliamentary election in spring 2018 half of the electorate is likely to cast their vote for a Eurosceptic political party.

TrendWatch: Beyond populism

Populist economic policies can boost growth and financial markets in the short term, but they also purport uncertainty and volatility. Populists’ disdain for checks and balances threatens to weaken pluralist democracies, while their predilection for facile solutions rarely results in sound policies.

Beyond populism

Mainstream election victories in 2017 made many observers believe that populism has peaked. Looking at longer-term trends that fuel political discontent and disorientation, we do not concur. The days when mainstream center-right and center-left parties smoothly alternated in power appear to be over. That does not mean that all risks are on the downside.

Seven Economic Misconceptions about France and Germany

The two biggest economies in Europe have been the subject of various wrong analyses and common-knowledge truisms. This report sets out to refute seven such misconceptions. These are: a higher French birth means potential growth is higher than in Germany; labor productivity is higher in France than in Germany because of France’s higher number of unemployed; Fiscal austerity is stronger in Germany than in France; France lost the competitiveness battle to Germany; German SMEs are performing better than French ones; France is Germany's main trading partner; and Because it grows faster, Germany should invest more than France.

Returns on private assets in selected EMU countries

In our latest report “Returns on private assets in selected EMU countries”, we investigate household savings behavior in nine European countries since 2003. In doing so, we are not only interested in the volume of savings but also in the contributions of investment income and value gains – the implicit yield on financial assets – before, during and after the crisis.

Economic Insight: Population growth in Germany

Demographers from the German and EU statistical offices have revised their population projections for Germany, painting a more optimistic picture about the country’s population for coming decades.

Economy going from strength to strength

Today’s sentiment indicators provide another positive surprise and point to at least four years of above-potential growth in the eurozone.

Economic Insight: Euro area - Inflation target will be achieved if unemployment continues to fall

The labor market in the euro area has been improving since 2013. Although the number of people in work exceeds 2008 levels, the number of unemployed is still over 3 million higher. 

Turkey: Full of Surprises

GDP growth in Turkey is estimated to pick up at +5.2% in 2017, before slowing down to +3.5% in 2018.

Boom

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew strongly in the third quarter 2017 as well, notching up a seasonally and calendar-adjusted increase of 0.8%.