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Dr. Lorenz Weimann

Allianz SE
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Eurozone: Economy enjoying golden autumn

Sep 22, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy has not lost steam in the third quarter either.

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USA: Normalization of balance sheet begins

Sep 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

The reduction in the central bank’s balance sheet starting in October is an appropriate step on the path to normalization and comes as no surprise to the markets.

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Economic Outlook: The Auto World Championship

Sep 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

Worldwide vehicle sales are forecast to reach 95.8 million in 2017 (+2.1% annual growth rate) and 98.2 million in 2018 (+2.5%), boosted by sales growth in China and India.

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Economic Insight: Germany - Lasting economic success cannot be taken for granted

Sep 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

On 24 September, this year of European elections will reach its next climax: the election of a new German government. These elections are taking place against the backdrop of a pronounced boom in the German economy.

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German economic forecast 2018

Sep 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

The German economy clearly moved up a gear in the first half of 2017. At an annual rate, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.7%, the strongest since the first half of 2011.

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Economic Insight: A secret tapering recipe?

Sep 06, 2017 | Allianz SE

The ECB has to make a move towards normalization. Soft tapering – though not our own core scenario – is an option. It consists of stopping or reducing reinvestments of principal payments before reducing Quantitative Easing (QE). Why choose different sequencing from the Fed?

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Ifo business climate stagnates at high level

Aug 25, 2017 | Allianz SE

Having climbed from one all-time high to another in recent months, the Ifo business climate index slipped only marginally in August.

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Strong economic growth in the first half of 2017

Aug 15, 2017 | Allianz SE

Real gross domestic product (GDP) showed strong growth in both the first (+0.7%) and the second quarter (+0.6%) after adjustments to reflect seasonal and calendar effects.

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Economic Insight: A breeze of growth

Aug 11, 2017 | Allianz SE

Global growth is accelerating (at last), yet not all engines are in sync. A disappointing U.S., reassuring Europe and stabilizing Emerging markets create good – not great – momentum. We forecast GDP to grow +2.9% in 2017 and 2018, unchanged from our last scenario. It will be the seventh consecutive year below 3%.

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Economic Insight: Trump's pro-growth agenda: Can it still happen?

Aug 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

After eight years of expansion, the US economy has limited spare resources. Hence policy changes that can create room for higher growth in the medium term are needed.

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Strong production growth in the second quarter

Aug 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although production in industry, which includes manufacturing, construction and energy, slipped by 1.1% in June 2017 against the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms and after adjustments to reflect the number of working days, it did bounce back in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the first, expanding by 1.8%.

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Eurozone: A string of upbeat numbers

Aug 01, 2017 | Allianz SE

With today’s GDP figures, eurozone growth of just over 2% this year looks well within reach.

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Economic Insight: Will the Chinese consumer save the World?

Jul 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The US represents the largest final consumer market with nearly 30% of global household consumption. As it contemplates more protectionist policies, the world may have to find itself a substitute.

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Brexit puts brakes on the economy

Jul 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

The British economy put in another weak performance in the second quarter of 2017.

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Ifo business climate points to strong second quarter growth

Jul 25, 2017 | Allianz SE

In contrast to the slight dip in the purchasing managers’ index, the Ifo business climate index climbed to a new record level in July.

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Economic Insight: Big bang?

Jul 20, 2017 | Allianz SE

There has been a noticeable increase in destabilizing political events in recent years. This begs the question whether we are dealing with an unfortunate accumulation of political accidents, or whether there is something systemic going on.

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Lending figures give green light for ECB exit

Jul 18, 2017 | Allianz SE

Ultra-loose monetary policy is not only unwarranted given the healthy economy, today’s bank lending survey results also argue in favor of a normalization of monetary policy.

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Economic Insight: Politics and markets will reconnect

Jul 14, 2017 | Allianz SE

War in Ukraine and Syria, rising tensions over North Korea, high policy uncertainty related to Brexit and the Trump presidency, a super-election cycle in Europe …

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Global insurance markets - Current status and outlook up to 2027

Jul 05, 2017 | Allianz SE

In their latest study, Allianz SE analyzes the growth prospects of global life and p&c insurance markets. After the meager years of the financial and economic crisis, insurers can look ahead with more confidence: While insurance premiums grew worldwide by only 3.1 percent between 2008 and 2016, growth should accelerate to 5.9 percent over the next decade.

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Impact of monetary policy on yields

Jul 04, 2017 | Allianz SE

The yields on long-term bonds no longer tie in with fundamental economic data like inflation and economic growth. The deviations can be explained by the impact of monetary policy.

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Survey in Germany and France

Jun 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

The outcome of the French parliamentary elections, that gave Emmanuel Macron’s party "La République en marche” a clear majority, is in tune with a study carried out by Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach on behalf of Allianz on the mood in Germany and France ahead of their respective elections.

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Ifo business climate points to boom

Jun 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

What seemed hardly possible has come to pass: The ifo business climate for industry and trade in Germany, that reached a record in May, rose again in June.

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Eurozone: Don't lose sight of consolidation target

Jun 13, 2017 | Allianz SE

On the back of favorable conditions such as low interest rates and healthy economic growth, headway is being made in consolidating public-sector budgets in the eurozone.

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Labor market benefiting from job-intensive growth

May 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The positive trend on the German labor market continued in May as well.

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ECB to tip-toe towards exit amid little inflationary pressure

May 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although inflation has retreated again from the 2% mark and is likely to remain mired at its current level, next week’s ECB meeting is not likely to be a complete “non-event”.

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Eurozone: Upside risks predominate

May 23, 2017 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy continues to firm up. After a strong start to 2017, the latest sentiment surveys signal that the pace of growth will be maintained in the second quarter.

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Upswing moves up a gear

May 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

In the first quarter of 2017 the German economy recorded strong seasonally and working-day adjusted growth of 0.6%, appreciably more buoyant than in the preceding two quarters.

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Eurozone economy purring nicely

May 03, 2017 | Allianz SE

GDP continues to grow slightly above potential, capacity utilization has been above-average for a fair while now, the improvement on the labor market continues, wages are edging up

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ECB QE: Quest for Exit

Apr 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

In its latest study, Allianz Research analyzes the impact of monetary normalization on debt service payments of the private sector in the eurozone.

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Eurozone: PMIs point to bouyant start to second quarter

Apr 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy is increasingly gaining momentum and breadth.

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Labor market still surprising on the upside

Mar 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The picture on the German labor market has been consistently bright in recent months

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The Taming of the Brexit

Mar 29, 2017 | Allianz SE

The withdrawal notification sent by the UK government to the European Council on March 29th triggered the two-year countdown specified by Art. 50.

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Ifo business climate signals buoyant upswing

Mar 27, 2017 | Allianz SE

In German industry both the assessment of the current situation as well as business expectations improved further in March.

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Allianz Euro Monitor 2016

Mar 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Despite the healthy economic performance in 2016, the eurozone failed to make further progress in reducing macroeconomic imbalances.

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On the reliability of population projections

Mar 17, 2017 | Allianz SE

The unexpected increase in the German population to an estimated 82.8 million as a result of the influx of refugees has sparked a debate on just how reliable population projections are.

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USA: Well-flagged rate move

Mar 16, 2017 | Allianz SE

The Fed’s rate hike came as no surprise. Over the past few weeks the central bankers had been priming the markets for the “March move” in unusually clear fashion.

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Eurozone: Netherlands - Economic outlook rosy despite political uncertainty

Mar 16, 2017 | Allianz SE

The elections in the Netherlands served up no fundamental surprises: Forming a government will not be easy and will be followed by a degree of political instability.

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Germany: Production on the rise

Mar 08, 2017 | Allianz SE

Industrial production and new orders went separate ways in January of this year.

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Excuse my French (elections)

Mar 06, 2017 | Allianz SE

France is a two-tier semi-presidential regime, traditionally resting on a two-party system. However, this election is different.

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2% inflation only temporary, but ECB should switch course

Mar 02, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although the current pickup in inflation is caused by special effects, we think higher inflation rates in the eurozone are here to stay.

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Ifo test: Business situation very robust

Feb 22, 2017 | Allianz SE

Manufacturing companies in Germany are increasingly upbeat about their current business situation.

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Eurozone: Business confidence confirms moderate growth pickup

Feb 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Economic momentum at the start of the year remains strong, in line with our expectations. After slowing in 2016, trade momentum should be boosted by a lower EUR in 2017 (1.05 against the USD) and the global growth acceleration.

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China: Foreign trade makes promising start to year

Feb 10, 2017 | Allianz SE

In January 2017, both Chinese exports and imports rose substantially on a year earlier for the first time in more than two years.

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Germany: Slide in production should not be dramatized

Feb 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although the steep 3% month-on-month slide in industrial production in December can be partially explained by the constellation of Christmas holidays, it does mean that production in the fourth quarter of 2016 actually fell by 0.1% compared with the third quarter.

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USA: Fed still on hold

Feb 02, 2017 | Allianz SE

As expected, the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range at 0.50%-0.75% and continued to signal that rates would be lifted gradually.

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Eurozone: Economy humming at turn of year

Jan 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

Unfazed by the heightened global uncertainty the eurozone economy put on a spurt at the end of 2016.

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Why the world economy could surprise on the upside despite all the uncertainty

Jan 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

Last year, the global economy proved fairly resilient in the face of unexpected shocks. Neither concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy nor major political surprises – including the result of the Brexit referendum in June and the outcome of the US presidential elections in November – managed to knock the global economy off its moderate growth path.

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China: Official growth target 2017: Lower would be better

Jan 20, 2017 | Allianz SE

All told, today’s fourth quarter 2016 economic data contained few surprises. Peering ahead is more interesting.

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ECB: Tapering debate around the corner

Jan 19, 2017 | Allianz SE

As expected, today’s ECB Council meeting was a non-event. The substantially improved economic data of late and the higher December inflation figure in the eurozone offered no grounds to put the recently extended bond purchasing program up for discussion again.

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Germany: Signs continue to point to upswing

Jan 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

On the economic front a humming domestic economy was the hallmark of 2016. The external side provided only a limited boost. At 2.5%, German exports expanded more strongly than world trade, which more or less stagnated on average last year.

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Trend in inflation argues for ECB flexibility in both directions

Jan 04, 2017 | Allianz SE

One higher inflation figure is not a tipping point, but the latest numbers (and good purchasing manager indices) show that surprises in every direction are possible.

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Outlook 2017: Optimism despite multiple risks

Dec 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, the move of the US President-elect Donald Trump into the Oval Office, the start of Brexit negotiations – given the elevated uncertainty hanging over political and economic developments next year, there is really only one thing that is certain: 2017 will be an eventful and interesting year.

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Ifo test shows bullish business conditions

Dec 19, 2016 | Allianz SE

Business conditions improved again in December for the fourth month running and are now the rosiest for more than four years.

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The economic value of security

Dec 12, 2016 | Allianz SE

Security is a fundamental human need, second in importance only to physiological needs such as the consumption of food.

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ECB: No tapering in sight

Dec 08, 2016 | Allianz SE

The ECB is sticking with its loose monetary policy: Although the monthly bond purchases are to be reduced to EUR 60bn from April, they are set to continue until at least the end of 2017.

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Italy: Reform standstill sine die

Dec 05, 2016 | Allianz SE

After the defeat in the constitutional referendum Italy’s Prime Minister has tendered his resignation. In the short term heightened political uncertainty is likely to weigh on financial markets and economic sentiment.

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Italy: Ahead of the vote

Dec 02, 2016 | Allianz SE

The outcome of the Italian constitutional referendum remains open. Polling has already stopped, with a third of voters still undecided.

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Inflation and exchange rate: Favorable constellation for tapering

Nov 30, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s inflation numbers are moving slowly in the right direction. Although next week the ECB is likely to extend its monthly bond purchases of EUR 80bn for a few months more, we see plenty of reasons for it to simultaneously announce a reduction in the purchase volume for the time thereafter.

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Eurozone: PMIs show economic momentum accelerating

Nov 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy moved up a gear in the final quarter of 2016.

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German economic forecast 2017

Nov 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

We expect the German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2017 after 1.9% in 2016. Consumption remains the driving force. We expect the global economic activity to pick up somewhat. The US economic outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty.

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An interest rate model for the eurozone and the US

Nov 16, 2016 |

Our extended interest rate model offers possible explanations for key interest rates, money market rates and long-term interest rates in the eurozone and the US that offer a high level of adaptability to the actual developments.

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German economic forecast 2017: Upswing with weak points

Nov 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

We expect the German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2017 after 1.9% in 2016. Consumption remains the driving force. We expect the global economic activity to pick up somewhat. The US economic outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty.

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America has voted

Nov 09, 2016 | Allianz SE

Donald Trump’s support for extreme positions, his provocations and his frequent U-turns imply heightened risk and volatility during the next administration.

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USA: Fed eyes December rate hike

Nov 03, 2016 | Allianz SE

The Fed steered clear of changing key rates in the nervous pre-election environment. But in line with the signals it had already provided in September, it stresses that an increase in the federal funds rate is imminent.

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Eurozone: Moderate upswing continues

Oct 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy remains on a moderate growth path. The Brexit vote has so far had little impact on growth momentum.

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Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

The outcome of Italy’s constitutional referendum on December 4th will probably have limited immediate impact on either the economy or the political system.

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Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

On December 4th, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform package, the most important element of which is a move to a unicameral parliamentary system.

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Post-Brexit vote economic honeymoon will soon come to an end

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

The UK economy slowed down in the third quarter of 2016, but the GDP reading – the first official indicator of how the economy as a whole has fared following the Brexit-vote – contained little of the doom and gloom that many had expected following Britain’s decision to exit the EU

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Ifo test flags buoyant growth at year-end

Oct 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

Following the jump seen in September, the Ifo business climate improved again in October. The steep rise in business expectations in industry in the last two months is particularly striking.

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Eurozone: Good PMIs bolster case for tapering from April

Oct 24, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy is ticking over nicely. In early December the ECB will probably outline its tapering plans more specifically. Hopefully it will start to taper in April 2017, which would anyway mean an extension of the bond purchasing program beyond March of next year.

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ECB should announce taperiing

Oct 17, 2016 | Allianz SE

This Thursday the ECB is likely to keep its cards close to its chest as to whether it will maintain its bond purchasing program or start tapering from the second quarter 2017.

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Germany: Economic engine still purring nicely

Oct 07, 2016 | Allianz SE

On the heels of July’s disappointing numbers, the steep rise in industrial production by a seasonally adjusted 3.3% in August shows that the German economy remains on a growth path.

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Eurozone: Slight slowdown in late summer

Sep 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s purchasing manager indices (PMIs) for the eurozone suggest that the economy has lost a little momentum but remains on an upward path. Next year the eurozone economy is likely to move back up a gear.

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USA: Cautious monetary policy normalization

Sep 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remained on hold again at yesterday’s meeting, it is sending very clear signals that it is moving towards a rate hike before the end of this year.

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Allianz Global Wealth Report 2016

Sep 21, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today, Allianz unveiled the latest edition of its "Global Wealth Report", which puts the asset and debt situation of private households in more than 50 countries under the microscope.

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The yield on private financial assets - Germany in an international comparison

Sep 21, 2016 | Allianz SE

In December 2015, we analyzed asset yields of households in several eurozone countries for the years 2010 to 2014. The results were, at least for German households, sobering: Together with Austria, they showed the lowest yields, clearly below 3%.

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Commodity prices - is the bear market over?

Sep 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

In the past few months commodity prices have bounced back on a broad front having in some cases fallen sharply in recent years. This drop is to be seen as part of a classic commodity cycle that was driven primarily by the dynamic growth in the emerging markets, especially in China.

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Climate risk insurance: New approaches and schemes

Sep 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

Finding solutions for how to deal with the impacts of climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time. It is the least and less developed countries which are the most affected by increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as droughts or floods, while being the least capable of coping with them.

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Emerging markets: Sustainable turnaround in capital inflows

Sep 15, 2016 |

For several months now emerging markets have been enjoying increased popularity again among portfolio investors.

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Emerging Markets: Turnaround in capital inflows is not sustainable

Sep 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

For several months now emerging markets have been enjoying increased popularity again among portfolio investors. However, this development is not being driven by fundamental improvements in the emerging markets themselves but reflects more an at least temporary rebound in risk appetite on the international financial markets.

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China: Indicators signal slight acceleration in growth

Sep 13, 2016 | Allianz SE

August economic data point to a slight pickup in economic momentum in the third quarter. The booming property market played a key role.

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ECB should quash expectations of further monetary policy easing

Sep 06, 2016 | Allianz SE

Further monetary policy easing is more likely to have negative effects than boost the economy.

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Eurozone: Higher inflation around the corner, no turnaround on the labor market

Aug 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

The ECB should take a relaxed view of today’s inflation figures. Inflation rates in the eurozone are set to pick up markedly very soon, pushing inflation expectations back up with them.

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USA: Illumination from Jackson Hole?

Aug 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

The US Fed has persistently indicated that the normalization of monetary policy would be gradual. This strategy takes account of the risks of reacting too late or too early.

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Ifo test: Industrial sentiment tumbles

Aug 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

The deterioration in German industrial sentiment shown by the ifo test is a warning signal.

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Eurozone: No damper on sentiment

Aug 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

The robust PMIs suggest that economic momentum in the eurozone remains solid. We do not see any need for the ECB to loosen the monetary reins any further.

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Economy recovery remains on track

Aug 12, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although the euro area economy slowed in the second quarter of the year, the economic recovery remains intact.

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BoE delivers comprehensive bundle of measures

Aug 04, 2016 | Allianz SE

The Bank of England (BoE) has launched a sweeping bundle of monetary policy measures to cushion the negative impact of the Brexit decision on the UK economy.

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Eurozone: Recovery continues

Jul 29, 2016 | Allianz SE

On the right track: The eurozone economy is not exactly humming, but it is growing. Unemployment is falling, not rapidly but steadily.

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Ifo test: Only muted reaction to Brexit-vote

Jul 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

According to the July Ifo test, business expectations in German industry clouded over only slightly despite the Brexit-vote.

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Eurozone sentiment barometer positive despite Brexit-vote

Jul 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for the eurozone confirm both our picture of an ongoing upward trend in the economy as well as the wait-and-see stance of the ECB.

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China: Government leans against growth slowdown

Jul 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

Not least thanks to the economic policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth, the Chinese economy in the second quarter of this year was able to maintain the pace of expansion seen in the preceding quarter.

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USA: June sentiment indicators surprisingly good

Jul 07, 2016 | Allianz SE

US growth looks to have firmed up in the second quarter. The robust assessment of production and new orders in the surprisingly good survey-based indicators for June suggest that the economy is poised to make a buoyant start to the second half of the year.

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Britain votes to leave: A leap in the dark

Jun 24, 2016 | Allianz SE

This is not a good day for Europe. Brexit is not an event, it is a process. The repercussions of yesterday’s vote will be felt not only in the UK but across Europe for years to come.

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Brexit fears are hitting the markets

Jun 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

With a week to go to Britain’s EU referendum, the Leave camp has again taken the lead in some opinion polls.

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USA: Fed not yet budging from two rate hikes this year

Jun 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

At its fourth meeting this year the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee remained on hold.

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Quieter on the ECB front

May 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s price and labor market data confirm our picture: inflation and the economy are heading in the right direction, thus arguing against any further loosening of monetary policy.

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Ifo test suggests solid economic development in the spring

May 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

According to the Ifo institute, the rise in business expectations in German industry and trade recorded this spring for the third time in a row sends out a positive signal for the German economy.

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Greece: Eurozone deal unlocks news bailout money

May 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

After months of negotiations, eurozone finance ministers agreed to unlock a further EUR 10.3 billion in bailout money for Greece.

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Eurozone: PMIs nothing to write home about, but firm

May 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although economic momentum in the second quarter is likely to slow somewhat compared with the start of the year, the eurozone economy remains well on the road to recovery.

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