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Dr. Lorenz Weimann

Allianz SE
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The net interest income of private households

Feb 22, 2018 |

In summer 2017, the ECB made a surprising move by releasing calculations on the net interest income of households in various EMU countries. According to the ECB's data, the income effects of the low interest rates were low in general (totaling up to 2% of GDP at the most), to the extent of being negligible in Germany. What is more, there were no signs of any pattern emerging with regard to the effects - with more positive effects on the (indebted) "south" of the continent and more negative effects on the (thrifty) "north".

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Ifo business climate index: Trees do not grow into the sky

Feb 22, 2018 | Allianz SE

The business climate index in Germany's industry and trade sector – a combination of assessment of the current situation and business expectations – fell sharply in February.

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EMU: Economic upswing not at risk

Feb 21, 2018 | Allianz SE

The setback in today's sentiment indicators is not the beginning of the end of the current economic upswing.

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Production remains on the uptrend

Feb 07, 2018 | Allianz SE

In December 2017, output in industry, including energy and construction, fell by 0.6% on a seasonally and working day basis compared with November, but overall output increased by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared with the previous quarter.

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Financial Markets: No reason to panic

Feb 06, 2018 | Allianz SE

The recent collapse in the stock markets confirms expectations that the year 2018, which is likely to bring further interest rate hikes by the US central banks and the first steps towards normalization of monetary policy in the eurozone and Japan, will be accompanied by sharp fluctuations in prices.

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USA: Farewell without surprises

Feb 01, 2018 | Allianz SE

As expected, the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the key interest rate unchanged at its first meeting this year, which was also the last one led by Janet Yellen.

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EMU: EMU economy ahead at full speed

Jan 30, 2018 | Allianz SE

The current economic momentum in the euro area (new GDP data, EU Commission sentiment indicators) clearly shows in retrospective that the loose ECB monetary policy is having an effect.

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United Kingdom: It's downhill from here for the UK economy

Jan 26, 2018 | Allianz SE

The preliminary Q4 growth estimate seems to underline the British economy’s resilience 18 months after the Brexit vote.

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German economy starts the new year with a lot of momentum

Jan 25, 2018 | Allianz SE

At the beginning of the year, sentiment in the German economy improved even further at a high level.

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EMU: High time for the ECB to change its signals

Jan 24, 2018 | Allianz SE

Today's sentiment indicators are further evidence that the ECB's easing bias is no longer appropriate.

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Economic Insight: 10 Ideas on how France and Germany could strengthen Europe

Jan 16, 2018 | Allianz SE

Between a pro-European government in France and early discussions of a Große Koalition in Germany, there is political momentum on both sides of the Rhine for a stronger Europe. Building on the principle of subsidiarity, and focusing on cost-effective institutional breakthroughs, France and Germany could drive the European project further with ten initiatives in five reform areas.

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The economic engine is still running smoothly without overheating

Jan 11, 2018 | Allianz SE

The German economy grew by 2.2% in 2017, the fastest rate of growth seen since 2011. After adjustments to reflect calendar effects, the figure came to as much as 2.5%.

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Economic Insight: Italy Election: Limited downside, limited upside

Dec 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Will Italy turn Eurosceptic in 2018? In Italy’s upcoming parliamentary election in spring 2018 half of the electorate is likely to cast their vote for a Eurosceptic political party.

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TrendWatch: Beyond populism

Dec 15, 2017 |

Populist economic policies can boost growth and financial markets in the short term, but they also purport uncertainty and volatility. Populists’ disdain for checks and balances threatens to weaken pluralist democracies, while their predilection for facile solutions rarely results in sound policies.

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Beyond populism

Dec 15, 2017 | Allianz SE

Mainstream election victories in 2017 made many observers believe that populism has peaked. Looking at longer-term trends that fuel political discontent and disorientation, we do not concur. The days when mainstream center-right and center-left parties smoothly alternated in power appear to be over. That does not mean that all risks are on the downside.

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Economic Insight: Seven Economic Misconceptions about France and Germany

Dec 08, 2017 | Allianz SE

The two biggest economies in Europe have been the subject of various wrong analyses and common-knowledge truisms. This report sets out to refute seven such misconceptions. These are: a higher French birth means potential growth is higher than in Germany; labor productivity is higher in France than in Germany because of France’s higher number of unemployed; Fiscal austerity is stronger in Germany than in France; France lost the competitiveness battle to Germany; German SMEs are performing better than French ones; France is Germany's main trading partner; and Because it grows faster, Germany should invest more than France.

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Returns on private assets in selected EMU countries

Dec 04, 2017 |

In our latest report “Returns on private assets in selected EMU countries”, we investigate household savings behavior in nine European countries since 2003. In doing so, we are not only interested in the volume of savings but also in the contributions of investment income and value gains – the implicit yield on financial assets – before, during and after the crisis.

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Economic Insight: Population growth in Germany

Dec 04, 2017 | Allianz SE

Demographers from the German and EU statistical offices have revised their population projections for Germany, painting a more optimistic picture about the country’s population for coming decades.

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Eurozone: Economy going from strength to strength

Nov 23, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today’s sentiment indicators provide another positive surprise and point to at least four years of above-potential growth in the eurozone.

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Economic Insight: Euro area - Inflation target will be achieved if unemployment continues to fall

Nov 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

The labor market in the euro area has been improving since 2013. Although the number of people in work exceeds 2008 levels, the number of unemployed is still over 3 million higher. 

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Turkey: Full of surprises

Nov 16, 2017 | Allianz SE

GDP growth in Turkey is estimated to pick up at +5.2% in 2017, before slowing down to +3.5% in 2018.

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Boom

Nov 14, 2017 | Allianz SE

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew strongly in the third quarter 2017 as well, notching up a seasonally and calendar-adjusted increase of 0.8%.

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Russia Risks and Opportunities: Don't say 'hop' until you jumped over

Oct 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

Russian GDP is set to grow by 1.9%, the oil price will move to $56 per barrel, Russian exports are set to increase by $26bn, and both insolvencies and the negative impact of international sanctions on investment will decline in 2018 forecasts Euler Hermes, the world’s leading trade credit insurer. With this background demand for trade credit insurance is set to grow.

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ECB: Preserve flexibility

Oct 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

We view critically the European Central Bank’s decision to extend its bond purchasing program beyond the end of 2017 until well into 2018.

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Ifo business climate points to ongoing buoyant growth

Oct 25, 2017 | Allianz SE

Already upbeat sentiment in the German economy improved further in October.

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Brexit: Taking the pulse of the UK economy

Oct 24, 2017 | Allianz SE

While eurozone growth surprises on the upside the British economy is struggling to keep up.

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Economic Insight: Three questions on the economic cycle

Oct 18, 2017 | Allianz SE

Where are we in the global economic cycle? Since the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis, the global economy has been stuck in a post-crisis malaise.

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Greece: From vicious to virtuous cycle - is this time for real?

Oct 17, 2017 | Allianz SE

As the global economy is getting back into gear, a review of activity and future prospects in Greece and its main trade partners.

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Buoyant autumn labor market

Sep 29, 2017 | Allianz SE

The decline in the jobless total accelerated appreciably in September, dropping 23,000 on the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms.

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Eurozone: Inflation busy going nowhere - no matter

Sep 29, 2017 | Allianz SE

Even if the ECB’s inflation target has not yet been met, we see a return to a healthy price environment in the eurozone.

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Allianz Global Wealth Report 2017

Sep 27, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today, Allianz unveiled the eighth edition of its "Global Wealth Report", which puts the asset and debt situation of households in more than 50 countries under the microscope.

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Eurozone: Economy enjoying golden autumn

Sep 22, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy has not lost steam in the third quarter either.

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USA: Normalization of balance sheet begins

Sep 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

The reduction in the central bank’s balance sheet starting in October is an appropriate step on the path to normalization and comes as no surprise to the markets.

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Economic Outlook: The Auto World Championship

Sep 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

Worldwide vehicle sales are forecast to reach 95.8 million in 2017 (+2.1% annual growth rate) and 98.2 million in 2018 (+2.5%), boosted by sales growth in China and India.

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German economic forecast 2018

Sep 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

The German economy clearly moved up a gear in the first half of 2017. At an annual rate, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.7%, the strongest since the first half of 2011.

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Economic Insight: Germany - Lasting economic success cannot be taken for granted

Sep 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

On 24 September, this year of European elections will reach its next climax: the election of a new German government. These elections are taking place against the backdrop of a pronounced boom in the German economy.

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Economic Insight: A secret tapering recipe?

Sep 06, 2017 | Allianz SE

The ECB has to make a move towards normalization. Soft tapering – though not our own core scenario – is an option. It consists of stopping or reducing reinvestments of principal payments before reducing Quantitative Easing (QE). Why choose different sequencing from the Fed?

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Ifo business climate stagnates at high level

Aug 25, 2017 | Allianz SE

Having climbed from one all-time high to another in recent months, the Ifo business climate index slipped only marginally in August.

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Strong economic growth in the first half of 2017

Aug 15, 2017 | Allianz SE

Real gross domestic product (GDP) showed strong growth in both the first (+0.7%) and the second quarter (+0.6%) after adjustments to reflect seasonal and calendar effects.

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Economic Insight: A breeze of growth

Aug 11, 2017 | Allianz SE

Global growth is accelerating (at last), yet not all engines are in sync. A disappointing U.S., reassuring Europe and stabilizing Emerging markets create good – not great – momentum. We forecast GDP to grow +2.9% in 2017 and 2018, unchanged from our last scenario. It will be the seventh consecutive year below 3%.

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Economic Insight: Trump's pro-growth agenda: Can it still happen?

Aug 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

After eight years of expansion, the US economy has limited spare resources. Hence policy changes that can create room for higher growth in the medium term are needed.

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Strong production growth in the second quarter

Aug 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although production in industry, which includes manufacturing, construction and energy, slipped by 1.1% in June 2017 against the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms and after adjustments to reflect the number of working days, it did bounce back in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the first, expanding by 1.8%.

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Eurozone: A string of upbeat numbers

Aug 01, 2017 | Allianz SE

With today’s GDP figures, eurozone growth of just over 2% this year looks well within reach.

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Economic Insight: Will the Chinese consumer save the World?

Jul 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The US represents the largest final consumer market with nearly 30% of global household consumption. As it contemplates more protectionist policies, the world may have to find itself a substitute.

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Brexit puts brakes on the economy

Jul 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

The British economy put in another weak performance in the second quarter of 2017.

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Ifo business climate points to strong second quarter growth

Jul 25, 2017 | Allianz SE

In contrast to the slight dip in the purchasing managers’ index, the Ifo business climate index climbed to a new record level in July.

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Economic Insight: Big bang?

Jul 20, 2017 | Allianz SE

There has been a noticeable increase in destabilizing political events in recent years. This begs the question whether we are dealing with an unfortunate accumulation of political accidents, or whether there is something systemic going on.

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Lending figures give green light for ECB exit

Jul 18, 2017 | Allianz SE

Ultra-loose monetary policy is not only unwarranted given the healthy economy, today’s bank lending survey results also argue in favor of a normalization of monetary policy.

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Economic Insight: Politics and markets will reconnect

Jul 14, 2017 | Allianz SE

War in Ukraine and Syria, rising tensions over North Korea, high policy uncertainty related to Brexit and the Trump presidency, a super-election cycle in Europe …

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Global insurance markets - Current status and outlook up to 2027

Jul 05, 2017 | Allianz SE

In their latest study, Allianz SE analyzes the growth prospects of global life and p&c insurance markets. After the meager years of the financial and economic crisis, insurers can look ahead with more confidence: While insurance premiums grew worldwide by only 3.1 percent between 2008 and 2016, growth should accelerate to 5.9 percent over the next decade.

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Impact of monetary policy on yields

Jul 04, 2017 | Allianz SE

The yields on long-term bonds no longer tie in with fundamental economic data like inflation and economic growth. The deviations can be explained by the impact of monetary policy.

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Survey in Germany and France

Jun 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

The outcome of the French parliamentary elections, that gave Emmanuel Macron’s party "La République en marche” a clear majority, is in tune with a study carried out by Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach on behalf of Allianz on the mood in Germany and France ahead of their respective elections.

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Ifo business climate points to boom

Jun 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

What seemed hardly possible has come to pass: The ifo business climate for industry and trade in Germany, that reached a record in May, rose again in June.

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Eurozone: Don't lose sight of consolidation target

Jun 13, 2017 | Allianz SE

On the back of favorable conditions such as low interest rates and healthy economic growth, headway is being made in consolidating public-sector budgets in the eurozone.

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Labor market benefiting from job-intensive growth

May 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The positive trend on the German labor market continued in May as well.

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ECB to tip-toe towards exit amid little inflationary pressure

May 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although inflation has retreated again from the 2% mark and is likely to remain mired at its current level, next week’s ECB meeting is not likely to be a complete “non-event”.

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Eurozone: Upside risks predominate

May 23, 2017 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy continues to firm up. After a strong start to 2017, the latest sentiment surveys signal that the pace of growth will be maintained in the second quarter.

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Upswing moves up a gear

May 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

In the first quarter of 2017 the German economy recorded strong seasonally and working-day adjusted growth of 0.6%, appreciably more buoyant than in the preceding two quarters.

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Eurozone economy purring nicely

May 03, 2017 | Allianz SE

GDP continues to grow slightly above potential, capacity utilization has been above-average for a fair while now, the improvement on the labor market continues, wages are edging up

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ECB QE: Quest for Exit

Apr 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

In its latest study, Allianz Research analyzes the impact of monetary normalization on debt service payments of the private sector in the eurozone.

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Eurozone: PMIs point to bouyant start to second quarter

Apr 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy is increasingly gaining momentum and breadth.

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Labor market still surprising on the upside

Mar 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The picture on the German labor market has been consistently bright in recent months

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The Taming of the Brexit

Mar 29, 2017 | Allianz SE

The withdrawal notification sent by the UK government to the European Council on March 29th triggered the two-year countdown specified by Art. 50.

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Ifo business climate signals buoyant upswing

Mar 27, 2017 | Allianz SE

In German industry both the assessment of the current situation as well as business expectations improved further in March.

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Allianz Euro Monitor 2016

Mar 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Despite the healthy economic performance in 2016, the eurozone failed to make further progress in reducing macroeconomic imbalances.

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On the reliability of population projections

Mar 17, 2017 | Allianz SE

The unexpected increase in the German population to an estimated 82.8 million as a result of the influx of refugees has sparked a debate on just how reliable population projections are.

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USA: Well-flagged rate move

Mar 16, 2017 | Allianz SE

The Fed’s rate hike came as no surprise. Over the past few weeks the central bankers had been priming the markets for the “March move” in unusually clear fashion.

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Eurozone: Netherlands - Economic outlook rosy despite political uncertainty

Mar 16, 2017 | Allianz SE

The elections in the Netherlands served up no fundamental surprises: Forming a government will not be easy and will be followed by a degree of political instability.

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Germany: Production on the rise

Mar 08, 2017 | Allianz SE

Industrial production and new orders went separate ways in January of this year.

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Excuse my French (elections)

Mar 06, 2017 | Allianz SE

France is a two-tier semi-presidential regime, traditionally resting on a two-party system. However, this election is different.

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2% inflation only temporary, but ECB should switch course

Mar 02, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although the current pickup in inflation is caused by special effects, we think higher inflation rates in the eurozone are here to stay.

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Ifo test: Business situation very robust

Feb 22, 2017 | Allianz SE

Manufacturing companies in Germany are increasingly upbeat about their current business situation.

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Eurozone: Business confidence confirms moderate growth pickup

Feb 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Economic momentum at the start of the year remains strong, in line with our expectations. After slowing in 2016, trade momentum should be boosted by a lower EUR in 2017 (1.05 against the USD) and the global growth acceleration.

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China: Foreign trade makes promising start to year

Feb 10, 2017 | Allianz SE

In January 2017, both Chinese exports and imports rose substantially on a year earlier for the first time in more than two years.

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Germany: Slide in production should not be dramatized

Feb 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although the steep 3% month-on-month slide in industrial production in December can be partially explained by the constellation of Christmas holidays, it does mean that production in the fourth quarter of 2016 actually fell by 0.1% compared with the third quarter.

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USA: Fed still on hold

Feb 02, 2017 | Allianz SE

As expected, the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range at 0.50%-0.75% and continued to signal that rates would be lifted gradually.

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Eurozone: Economy humming at turn of year

Jan 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

Unfazed by the heightened global uncertainty the eurozone economy put on a spurt at the end of 2016.

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Why the world economy could surprise on the upside despite all the uncertainty

Jan 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

Last year, the global economy proved fairly resilient in the face of unexpected shocks. Neither concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy nor major political surprises – including the result of the Brexit referendum in June and the outcome of the US presidential elections in November – managed to knock the global economy off its moderate growth path.

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China: Official growth target 2017: Lower would be better

Jan 20, 2017 | Allianz SE

All told, today’s fourth quarter 2016 economic data contained few surprises. Peering ahead is more interesting.

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ECB: Tapering debate around the corner

Jan 19, 2017 | Allianz SE

As expected, today’s ECB Council meeting was a non-event. The substantially improved economic data of late and the higher December inflation figure in the eurozone offered no grounds to put the recently extended bond purchasing program up for discussion again.

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Germany: Signs continue to point to upswing

Jan 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

On the economic front a humming domestic economy was the hallmark of 2016. The external side provided only a limited boost. At 2.5%, German exports expanded more strongly than world trade, which more or less stagnated on average last year.

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Trend in inflation argues for ECB flexibility in both directions

Jan 04, 2017 | Allianz SE

One higher inflation figure is not a tipping point, but the latest numbers (and good purchasing manager indices) show that surprises in every direction are possible.

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Outlook 2017: Optimism despite multiple risks

Dec 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, the move of the US President-elect Donald Trump into the Oval Office, the start of Brexit negotiations – given the elevated uncertainty hanging over political and economic developments next year, there is really only one thing that is certain: 2017 will be an eventful and interesting year.

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Ifo test shows bullish business conditions

Dec 19, 2016 | Allianz SE

Business conditions improved again in December for the fourth month running and are now the rosiest for more than four years.

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The economic value of security

Dec 12, 2016 | Allianz SE

Security is a fundamental human need, second in importance only to physiological needs such as the consumption of food.

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ECB: No tapering in sight

Dec 08, 2016 | Allianz SE

The ECB is sticking with its loose monetary policy: Although the monthly bond purchases are to be reduced to EUR 60bn from April, they are set to continue until at least the end of 2017.

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Italy: Reform standstill sine die

Dec 05, 2016 | Allianz SE

After the defeat in the constitutional referendum Italy’s Prime Minister has tendered his resignation. In the short term heightened political uncertainty is likely to weigh on financial markets and economic sentiment.

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Italy: Ahead of the vote

Dec 02, 2016 | Allianz SE

The outcome of the Italian constitutional referendum remains open. Polling has already stopped, with a third of voters still undecided.

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Inflation and exchange rate: Favorable constellation for tapering

Nov 30, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s inflation numbers are moving slowly in the right direction. Although next week the ECB is likely to extend its monthly bond purchases of EUR 80bn for a few months more, we see plenty of reasons for it to simultaneously announce a reduction in the purchase volume for the time thereafter.

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Eurozone: PMIs show economic momentum accelerating

Nov 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy moved up a gear in the final quarter of 2016.

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German economic forecast 2017

Nov 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

We expect the German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2017 after 1.9% in 2016. Consumption remains the driving force. We expect the global economic activity to pick up somewhat. The US economic outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty.

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An interest rate model for the eurozone and the US

Nov 16, 2016 |

Our extended interest rate model offers possible explanations for key interest rates, money market rates and long-term interest rates in the eurozone and the US that offer a high level of adaptability to the actual developments.

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German economic forecast 2017: Upswing with weak points

Nov 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

We expect the German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2017 after 1.9% in 2016. Consumption remains the driving force. We expect the global economic activity to pick up somewhat. The US economic outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty.

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America has voted

Nov 09, 2016 | Allianz SE

Donald Trump’s support for extreme positions, his provocations and his frequent U-turns imply heightened risk and volatility during the next administration.

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USA: Fed eyes December rate hike

Nov 03, 2016 | Allianz SE

The Fed steered clear of changing key rates in the nervous pre-election environment. But in line with the signals it had already provided in September, it stresses that an increase in the federal funds rate is imminent.

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Eurozone: Moderate upswing continues

Oct 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy remains on a moderate growth path. The Brexit vote has so far had little impact on growth momentum.

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Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

The outcome of Italy’s constitutional referendum on December 4th will probably have limited immediate impact on either the economy or the political system.

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Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

On December 4th, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform package, the most important element of which is a move to a unicameral parliamentary system.

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Post-Brexit vote economic honeymoon will soon come to an end

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

The UK economy slowed down in the third quarter of 2016, but the GDP reading – the first official indicator of how the economy as a whole has fared following the Brexit-vote – contained little of the doom and gloom that many had expected following Britain’s decision to exit the EU

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Ifo test flags buoyant growth at year-end

Oct 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

Following the jump seen in September, the Ifo business climate improved again in October. The steep rise in business expectations in industry in the last two months is particularly striking.

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