Since German manufacturers of electronic components are concentrated primarily in segments which are less subject to cyclical influence than the semiconductor industry, they will prove less vulnerable to the imminent economic downturn than the major international players.
Is the chip industry about to short-circuit?
Broadly speaking, the business outlook for Germany is more favorable than that of the global market. This is because data technology, which is now experiencing a marked downturn after the large-scale modernization programs of recent months, accounts for a smaller proportion of sales demand in Germany than it does else-where. In addition, segments such as the car industry and entertainment electron-ics continue to increase their orders, albeit at a reduced rate. All told, we expect to see a rise in production of 5% for Germany – similar to that in the EU as a whole – in 2005, followed by growth of around 1% in 2006.
Thanks to the launch of ever new applications, the long-term trend for manufac-turers of electronic components remains very healthy. One can only guess at the possible future uses of semiconductors, given the enormous dynamism in techno-logical development and the constant increase in the number of potential applica-tions. We put the long-term annual production growth in the industry at over 10%. Langfristig sehen wir das jährliche Produktionswachstum der Branche in der Grö-ßenordnung von über 10 % liegen. Stable growth in the manufacture of electronic components will, however, continue to be disrupted by pronounced economic cy-cles prompted by the semiconductor segment.
However, Germany’s cozy niche position should not conceal the fact that Germany has long been lagging behind in the high-tech segment. Here, it is US and Japa-nese companies that are setting the standards. In a few years’ time, Chinese companies will have advanced into the Top Ten, and will be playing a key role in shaping the market. Companies that lose touch with the leaders in technological terms will eventually be forced out of the market. A process of market adjustment is long overdue, and around one third of all market players are likely to disappear over the next decade. Unfortunately, it looks as if that group will also include a number of German companies.
Christoph Partisch
Tel.: +49.69.2 63 – 5 57 95
E-Mail: [email protected]