Particularly surprising is the fact that the sectors motor vehicle construction and transport show no appreciable growth shortfall. After all, mobility is one of the main causes of CO2 contamination. The big changes occur here below the sector level. For instance, individual mobility (car driving) loses substantial share to the advantage of public transport. And at the end of the day motor vehicle manufacturers lose value added share, but the supply industry and the manufacturers of railway technology gain to the same extent.
The long-term impact of climate protection on Germany's economic structure
The indicator model on which the study rests is divided into two groups: the first group of indicators is deigned to reflect the adjustment pressure each sector faces from the environmental pollution they cause. The focus was on greenhouse gas emissions, energy intensity and water consumption of the relevant sector. To complement the three indicators, other environment-relevant criteria were incorporated for which no quantitative data were available but which are nonetheless important in assessing the degree to which a sector is affected by the economy. The second group of indicators evaluates growth potential. The question here is: How is an economic sector fundamentally placed to react to exogenous changes – as induced by climate protection. The Allianz/Dresdner economists have assumed that a sector is the more likely to succeed the stronger its international competitive position is, the greater its innovativeness and the more it has managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save energy in the past. Adjustment pressure and growth potential provide the overall reading for an economic sector. This overall climate scenario assessment is then set against the base scenario in order to establish winners and losers.
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