Nowadays practically all areas of life are unthinkable without microsystem technology, with the result that it has become a key industry for all highly-developed countries. This means that the backdrop for the electronic component market is still favorable: going forward we continue to see nominal long-term sales growth of over 10 % a year. This applies in particular to the most important product line – semiconductors. The current business outlook for suppliers of electronic components also looks extremely upbeat, with global sales set to continue to rise strongly in 2007. Among the non-European growth markets, China in particular, alongside India, offers above-average growth prospects. Almost half of the global market volume is now accounted for by South East Asia.
The chip industry under permanent voltage – limitless innovative growth?
However, the semiconductor industry is increasingly reaching its limits. In technical regard, because – despite ongoing advances in nanotechnology – the constant miniaturization of the components used is prevented by drawbacks, among other things, with etching, light exposure and heat generation. In financial regard, because the steep rise in development and production costs means that only a few financially strong companies can shoulder them.
Given these high outlays, as well as substantial effects of scale, the degree of concentration in the semiconductor industry is well above-average. High fixed costs in the form of major fixed investment – the cost of setting up a new chip factory currently adds up to at least somewhere between USD 1bn and 2bn – as well the know-how edge of the established suppliers means that markets are largely sealed off. Without massive government support, fledgling pioneer companies have little chance of survival. With just a few exceptions, German suppliers have withdrawn into niche segments and – particularly in the semiconductor field – no longer number among the market leaders on the world markets.
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