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Turkey: Accession negotiations intensify reform pressure on EU

May 19, 2004

In the debate about Turkey’s entry into the EU foreign policy considerations are usually in the foreground, but the economic consequences for the EU are also significant. Assuming Turkey is granted similar accession terms as the eastern European countries, the cost of Turkish accession would exceed those of the current enlargement round.

The start of accession negotiations with Turkey will further intensify reform pressure on the EU. Without far-reaching reforms in agricultural and structural policy, Turkey’s accession would blow the EU budget – already squeezed by eastward enlargement – apart.

If the EU had to grant Turkey subsidies along the lines of those applicable today, gross commitments to Turkey in 2015, the first year after EU entry, would total around EUR 16bn according to estimates by the economists at Allianz Group and Dresdner Bank. With Turkey’s payments into the EU put at EUR 3bn, Turkey would receive around EUR 13bn net from Brussels. With rising direct aid in the agricultural sector and increasing structural support, this figure would likely climb to EUR 25.5bn gross and EUR 21.5bn net by 2024.

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Turkey: Accession negotiations intensify reform pressure on EU (only available in German)