Following the extremely disappointing performance since the summer of 2008, US retail sales have developed visibly better at the beginning of the year than generally expected, chalking up a gain of 1% on the previous month according to advance estimates. And the recovery would appear to be across the board. The core components relevant for estimating goods consumption (around 40% of private consumption), i.e. stripping out motor vehicle and building material sales, rebounded noticeably by 1.3%.
USA: Sign of life from retail
However, consumer prices can also be expected to move up again in January, fueled by the recent rise in gasoline prices. The commodities index could see a hefty rise of around 0.5% - 0.75%. In price-adjusted terms, therefore, the increase in goods consumption is likely to be more subdued, but will nonetheless provide a clearly positive contribution to the development of real consumption at the beginning of the year.
The backdrop for consumption – in particular the situation on the labor market –- will remain difficult for the time being, suggesting that we could see a reversal in the coming months. However, today's data can still be taken as a sign that the downward trend in real consumer spending is slowing this quarter.
Thomas Hofmann
Tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 - 19 912
e-mail: [email protected]