The intensive adjustment in non-farm payroll employment continued undiminished in January. The scale of the job losses at just under 600,000 was more or less in line with the previous two months. This puts employment 2.6% down on a year earlier. Job losses are still widespread, with education and health and the public sector the only sectors recording an increase in employment.
USA: Labor market still worryingly weak
In terms of hours worked, the adjustment remains particularly pronounced in the manufacturing sector, above all in the automobile industry. By contrast, the 0.4% decline in the number of hours worked in the retail sector was appreciably lower than in previous months - perhaps signaling a pickup in sales in this sector at the start of the year. The sharp rise in the unemployment rate has so far not had any major impact on wage growth. In January average hourly earnings remained almost 4% up on a year earlier.
There is little sign of a significant improvement in the labor market picture in the near future either. However, if, as we assume, moderate growth is achieved with the help of expansionary economic policy, the labor market should show initial signs of stabilization towards the end of the year, particularly as the corporate sector has not built up surplus employment in recent years.
Thomas Hofmann
Tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 - 19 912
e-mail: [email protected]