USA: Retail sales stable

US retail sales slipped only marginally in February, down 0.1% on the previous month, outperforming broad expectations once again. Moreover, the figures for January were revised up sharply by 0.8 percentage points to +1.8%. The main negative factor was yet another drop in motor vehicle and parts dealers sales, as already flagged by carmakers’ figures on sales volumes. By contrast, the core component of this report (total sales stripping out motor vehicle and building material sales), which flows directly into the estimate of goods consumption, remained on an upward trend with an increase of 0.8%. In price-adjusted terms goods consumption in February is likely to have dipped more sharply as goods prices can be expected to have risen by around 0.5%-0.75% given the ongoing uptick in gasoline prices. However, the upward revision to the January numbers implies an upward revision in real goods consumption of a good 0.4 percentage points and in overall consumption of around 0.2 percentage points. On balance, therefore, real consumer spending in the two-month period January/February is likely to have at least maintained the Q42008 level.

 

 

Thomas Hofmann

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