In October the goods and services deficit declined for the fourth month on the trot. The figure of USD 43.5bn was the lowest so far this year. The main reason behind the improvement was a drop in oil imports.
Encouragingly, the underlying improvement is also evident in the price-adjusted figures. Thanks mainly to the ongoing solid upward trend in export volumes, the goods deficit narrowed again and was below its third-quarter level. Were things to remain unchanged in the remaining two months of this year, external trade would make a mildly positive contribution to economic growth in the final quarter of 2011 as well. However, with evidence of a restocking of inventories emerging, we are still not expecting any notable impact on growth. Experience shows that inventory investment can have a tangible impact on import momentum.