Although jobs growth in the nonfarm sector in July was lower than the slightly downwardly revised average for the previous three months, it should be borne in mind that employment does not respond immediately and fully to changes in aggregate output. The reduced pace of jobs growth therefore probably reflects the only moderate performance in the first half of the year with average quarterly growth of 1.4% (annualized rate). We expect the economy to gain substantial momentum in the coming months. Accordingly, the current moderate jobs growth is likely to prove only temporary.