With a share in overall output of around 30%, industrial production is likely to contribute around 1% to gross domestic product growth in the third quarter. Even if all other sectors were to stagnate, GDP growth would still be fairly strong. Our current estimate of 0.5% sequential economic growth in the third quarter is therefore likely to be at the lower end of what is on the cards. Nonetheless, there are no grounds for economic euphoria. Given the leveling off in new orders, the end of the year is likely to see moderate economic growth at best.