Against this backdrop it is to be feared that any slowdown in jobs growth – whether prompted by a slowdown in the economy or perhaps by the introduction of the minimum wage –could result relatively quickly in an at least moderate rise in unemployment. However, there is little risk of this in the coming months. Although growth in the German economy in the second quarter of 2014 at an estimated 0.3% is likely to be substantially weaker than in the weather-boosted first quarter, stripping out these factors economic momentum is likely to remain fairly strong over the rest of the year. We continue to expect economic growth of 2.0% this year. This can be expected to fuel an ongoing improvement on the labor market. In the course of 2014 the jobless total is likely to fall by around 100,000, translating into an annual average fall of only 70,000 to 2.88 million. Both over the course of the year and on average in 2014, employment is likely to rise by between 350 to 400,000.