The drop in exports in the first quarter is likely to prove temporary as export expectations have continued to hold up well. As a result, exports are likely to provide impetus in the second quarter. However, the risks on the external trade front have increased – and not only due to the relatively high external value of the euro. A further deterioration in the Ukraine crisis, including economic sanctions, would be bound to leave its mark on exports.
The strong start to the year means that the prospects for full-year growth – leaving aside the risks – are significantly better than in 2012 and 2013. We con-tinue to expect growth of 2.0% in 2014. There is even a chance that things could turn out even better.