There are absolutely no grounds for pessimism on the economic front. The marked pickup in new orders in November and the increasingly upbeat business surveys suggest the economy is moving up a gear. We expect real gross domestic product to rise by a good half a percent in the first quarter of this year and by 2.0% in 2014 as a whole. Unlike in 2013, foreign trade is likely to provide a substantial boost this year.
It is striking that, as in 2012, the number of people in work rose slightly more strongly than real GDP. On the positive side this means that economic growth in Germany is very employment intensive. On the negative side it points to weak productivity growth. As labor productivity per hour worked also rose only marginally in 2012 and 2103, we view the trend in productivity with some concern. Weak productivity increases curb the growth potential of an economy. In Germany the reluctance to invest in recent years is probably one of the reasons behind the modest increases in productivity. Although we are penciling in a 4-5% climb in real equipment investment this year, this will still not lift investment up to a high level.