According to the official figures, external trade underpinned the German economy. The strong rise in exports in September played a key role and illustrates that the weakness of the global economy is not as pronounced as sometimes asserted. Surprisingly, private households ratcheted up their consumption spending sharply. This does not chime with the development in retail sales, which were down slightly on the preceding quarter. Although retail sales now account for only around one-third of private consumption, as a rule they tend to set the tone for overall consumption. Given the geoplitical uncertainties, the drop in equipment investment in the third quarter was to be expected. Building investment slipped again marginally. Evidently the exceptionally high construction output in the winter of 2013/14 resulted in substantially lower output in the summer months of 2014. However, in the coming quarters construction is likely to provide a positive impetus again. In conjunction with the slide in oil prices, which is likely to act like a stimulus program, and the rising competitiveness of German exporters on the back of the exchange rate, the economic outlook for 2015 is looking much brighter again. We are sticking with our 2015 forecast of 1.4%, appreciably more upbeat than the Council of Economic Experts (+1.0%).