It is particularly encouraging that the Federal Labor Agency’s vacancies index rose strongly in November. It is therefore fairly unlikely that the jobless total in the winter months will increase more than normal for the time of year. In January and February 2012 we expect around 3.1 million people to be out of work. On average in 2012 we are looking at a jobless total of 2.85 million, a good 100,000 down on this year. However, a continuation of the positive trend on the labor market presupposes that the sovereign debt crisis does not trigger a recession.