Germany: Ifo economic test points towards retail recovery

One particularly marked trend is the recovery in business sentiment in the retail sector over the past few months. The assessment of the business situation and business expectations in this sector of the economy is now more positive than it has been in years. This suggests that consumer demand is now starting to pick up considerably. After private consumption was up by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, similar growth is likely to be seen in Q3 as well. All in all, real consumption in 2010 is not expected to contract - a fear that was still circulating in places only recently - but rather is likely to show slight growth. One decisive factor in this respect is that, with the recovery on the labor market now well underway, income levels are on the up - in particular also due to longer working hours again - and the increase in job security is having a positive effect on the propensity to consume. The combination of improved labor market conditions and higher domestic demand plays a key role in any self-supporting upswing. Germany's economy is now edging ever closer to this sort of scenario.

Dr Rolf Schneider

Tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 77 90