Particularly striking is that industrial capacity utilization has already risen again. This raises hopes that some of the hefty decline in production at the end of last year can be made up in the first quarter 2013. But an increase in industrial production is also likely to be accompanied by growth in gross domestic product, with services currently providing a fairly stable fillip. Having contracted by almost 0.5% in the fourth quarter 2012, we now expect gross domestic product to record quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% in the first quarter 2013.
A key factor behind the economy’s positive start to the year is likely to have been the pickup in the global economy stemming largely from Asia, which is benefiting German exports. There are also growing signs that the downward trend in the eurozone economy is coming to an end. However, given the risks still emanating from the debt crisis in particular, the economic outlook is still clouded by considerable uncertainty.