The improvement in business expectations is focused mainly on the manufacturing industry – the sector that is most susceptible to economic ups and downs. The marked increase in the indicators that describe the export outlook comes as a particularly encouraging development within this context. By contrast, a number of other economies, such asChina, recently reported more disappointing export trends. The fact that – as a glance at other indicators clearly shows – the euro zone economy has found a more stable footing in recent months is likely to be one factor driving the upward trend in export expectations.
We still expect the German economy to report fairly robust growth in Q2 2012, expanding by at least 0.5% in a quarter-on-quarter comparison. This forecast already makes allowances for the impact that the catastrophic flooding in June has had on macroeconomic production. The numerous weather-related problems that have plagued the first six months of the year will provide additional impetus for production, due to the need to catch up and the reconstruction efforts, well into the second half. As a result, we believe that a strong increase in macroeconomic output is on the cards for the third quarter of this year, too. In this sort of environment, economic growth to the tune of around 1% remains a realistic target for 2013.