This glimmer of hope on the economic horizon should not hide the fact that the German economy has been in an exceptionally deep recession since the beginning of 2009. In the first quarter of 2009 gross domestic product is likely to be ½ - 1% down on the previous quarter and 4% down on a year earlier. For this reason alone, the assessment of the economic situation in companies is very negative. Nor are business expectations likely to continuously edge their way up in coming months either. Given the problems facing the financial system which will take time to solve, the path ahead will be bumpy. Nonetheless, the latest Ifo survey nurtures hopes that we will be spared any economic horror scenarios.