Alongside robust domestic demand, foreign trade also provided a positive impulse again in the first quarter. This is all the more encouraging given the fact that the economic consequences of the European debt crisis are having a considerable dampening effect on German exports. In the first quarter of this year German industrial orders from the eurozone were 7½% down on the fourth quarter 2011 and no less than 12% down on the third quarter 2011. German exports are being stabilized by a modest resumption in world trade momentum at the beginning of this year compared with the second half of 2011.
However, in the shadow of the European debt crisis, the German economy is still in a difficult environment. The drivers of the upswing are only likely to maintain the upper hand if the debt crisis does not escalate. For this reason, the positive start to the year – as encouraging as it is – should not be overestimated. We are sticking to our forecast of 1.0% growth in 2012. In view of the good first quarter numbers there is certainly a chance that growth of 1% could be slightly exceeded. But there is still the risk that things turn out worse.