As the Federal Statistical Office announced today, the German economy grew by a seasonally-adjusted 0.7% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2009, driven by exports and equipment and construction investment. Inventory accumulation also contributed to the rise in GDP. By contrast, there was bad news on the private consumption side. The Statistical Office said that private consumer spending fell in the third quarter, thus curbing economic growth. Key here was doubtless the end of the cash for clunkers scheme and developments on the labor market.
Germany: Economy gathering pace - consumption disappointing
All in all, today’s figures are good news. However, they should not conceal the fact that the German economy still faces a long haul ahead before economic activity is back at its pre-crisis level. The encouraging trend in manufacturing orders and industrial production now evident for months suggests that growth is set to remain dynamic going into next year. In view of the buoyant second half of 2009, an increase in real GDP next year of between 2.5% and 3% could be within reach. But even then the German economy would have made up only around 60% of the collapse in output seen since the first quarter of 2008.
Gregor Eder
tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 33 58
e-mail: [email protected]