In February seasonally adjusted unemployment fell by 14,000 on the previous month, the third drop in a row. Even assuming that the seasonally adjusted figures paint a somewhat too positive picture of labor market developments given the unusually mild winter, the impression is increasingly gaining traction that the economic pickup has now reached the labor market.
It is also encouraging that job creation is not only continuing but has actually intensified somewhat. In January 2014 the number of people in work was 0.7% up on a year earlier after an average increase of 0.6% in the fourth quarter 2013. Thanks to the latest increase the number of people in work in Germany has topped 42 million for the first time. The increase in the number of jobs liable to social insurance remains well above-average, up 1.6% on a year earlier. Given the current acceleration in the economy, we expect vibrant job growth to continue over the course of the year. Prospects are good that the average jobless total in 2014 will fall back below 2.9 million (2013: 2.95 million).