Sentiment among Chinese companies is still not particularly buoyant, but it is significantly less downbeat than just a few months ago. In February the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector climbed noticeably to 49 points. having stood at 45.3 points in January. The index thus lies only marginally below the expansion threshold of 50 points, and already a good 10 points above its previous low of November 2008.
China: Green shoots of hope
However, the all-clear still cannot be sounded for the Chinese economy. The hard figures for foreign trade or industrial production, for example, are still simply too weak for that. Nonetheless, the latest survey results are nurturing new hopes of a gradual stabilization in the economic situation. The Chinese government responded swiftly to the slump in growth, passing a two-year investment program in November 2008 to the tune of some USD 586bn and already spending some USD15bn of this in the last two months of 2008. The tangible expansion in lending by banks should also have a stimulating effect. With an increase of more than 21 percent compared to the previous year, lending growth in January 2009 was the strongest in five years. The gradual economic stabilization in the first half-year should then be followed by economic revival in the second half-year. On average we expect real GDP to expand by between 5 and 6% in 2009 after 9% last year.
Gregor Eder
tel.: 49 / 69 / 2 63 – 5 33 58
e-mail: [email protected]